China experts Bonnie Lin and Jude Blanchett wrote an essay in Foreign Affairs on the impact of the war in Ukraine on Beijingʼs foreign policy strategy. At the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, China seemed to freeze. Itʼs likely that Chinese diplomats and propagandists themselves were trying to find out what President Xi Jinping thought about the war, Lin and Blanchett believe. Today, after six months of full-scale war in Ukraine, Beijingʼs position has stabilized. In addition to Russian aggression, the Westʼs increased interest in Taiwanʼs support threatens Xiʼs plans for "reunification" and prompts a more aggressive foreign policy. China hopes to use Russiaʼs victory in Ukraine, or at least the weakening of the Westʼs military power, to strengthen its position on the global stage. Beijing is trying to create an alternative to pro-American structures, and therefore expands and deepens its partnerships with those states that are not part of these structures - for example, by strengthening the BRICP bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as an alternative to the G7 and G20. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is another tool that Beijing is seeking to strengthen by creating a SCO bank and a free trade agreement among member countries. Tehran even offered the SCO to introduce a single currency. Chinaʼs efforts are aimed at establishing its own vision of the world order, different from that of the United States, the authors write, but Beijingʼs increasingly aggressive behavior could cause international pressure on China. According to Lin and Blanchette, Xi Jinpingʼs penchant for dramatic exaggeration could cost Beijing dearly.
The German Spiegel quotes the forecasts of the German military expert, Lieutenant General Alfons Mais, regarding the development of events in Ukraine. Mais believes that the war has a high chance of turning into a frozen conflict, but the only acceptable end to the war should be the full return of Ukraineʼs territorial integrity as a member of the UN. Regarding the additional supplies of weapons to Ukraine, Meis discreetly writes that supplies will be possible only if the German army can ensure the security of the country and its NATO partners. The publication notes that even today the reserves of the German Armed Forces are small, and the military opposes Germany taking on additional obligations to supply Ukraine with weapons.
Bloomberg calls on the EU to accelerate the provision of financial assistance to Ukraine in order to prevent a national default. While the Kremlin claims that the Russian economy can cope with Western sanctions, Ukraine was forced to devalue the hryvnia against the dollar by 25% and ask foreign investors to postpone payments on foreign debt. The possible fall of the Ukrainian economy, marked by a national default, is something that will give Russia a reason for another propaganda and undermine the morale of Ukrainians, the publication writes. Such a development of events must be avoided, and that is why, back in May, the EU undertook to pay Ukraine EUR 9 billion in support. In reality, Ukraine received only about one billion, because Brussels and the governments of the EU countries did not reach an agreement on the financing mechanism. The delay in the decision not only hurts Ukraine, but also violates the "tacit agreement" between the EU and the US, according to which the EU must take care of financial assistance while the US provides the bulk of heavy weapons. The situation is complicated by the fact that Europe will soon face an energy crisis created by Putin in response to sanctions, but this is not a reason to suspend aid to Ukraine, writes Bloomberg.