The Wall Street Journal writes about the upcoming and possibly decisive phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war ― Ukraineʼs counteroffensive in the south. Thanks to artillery and long-range missiles, Ukraine was able to destroy part of the Russian ammunition warehouses, control centers and air defense systems, which slowed down the Russian offensive in the east. Now, writes the newspaper, Ukraine will probably use the same tactics to ensure a counteroffensive in the south - and, eventually, to return Kherson. WSJ spoke with Australian military strategist Mick Ryan, who believes that the Russians face a difficult decision ― whether to keep Donbas or move troops to defend the occupation of Kherson. The return of the city by Ukraine, according to Ryan, would be a turning point in the war. Eliot Cohen, a military historian, says that the return of Kherson will be not only a strategic victory, but also a psychological one ― both in Ukraine and in the eyes of foreign allies. Instead, a failure would weaken support for the West, which is worried about the gas crisis. Cohen believes that this new phase of the war will be similar to the last year of the First World War, when the Germans on one side of the front and the British and Australians on the other tried to break through the front and look for weak points of the enemy. Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst from Gdańsk, is convinced that in this phase artillery will not play a decisive role ― manpower and armored vehicles will be important. Since Western experts do not know about the state and composition of the Armed Forces, it is difficult for them to make forecasts. Chris Dougherty, a former strategist of the US Department of Defense, is not sure that the Ukrainians will be able to seize positions in the east, where the Russians are well entrenched ― but, he believes, the Armed Forces should find weak points and strike in the rear. "Nothing scares the army like a blow to the rear," says the expert. In general, the Russian army is weakened and on the verge of exhaustion, according to experts. In addition, Russia is increasingly clearly affected by Western sanctions. The initiative is gradually passing to the Ukrainians, and it must be used skillfully.
The Washington Post columnist Ishaan Tharoor spoke with Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani about the Kremlinʼs role in the crisis in the Balkans. The day before, Osmani said that she was worried about a possible crisis in the Western Balkans caused by Putinʼs aim to destabilize Europe. This same weekend, fighting broke out on the Kosovo-Serbia border in response to Kosovoʼs demand to replace the number plates of vehicles entering from Serbia with Kosovo ones, as Serbia requires of vehicles from Kosovo. The situation in Bosnia is also uneasy, writes Tharoor: there, the leader of the semi-autonomous ethnic Serb republic within the Bosnian Federation insists on secession. It also threatens the stability of the region. Both Moscow and Belgrade support the split. Serbia is a longtime ally of the Kremlin, its president Vučić refused to join the sanctions against the Russian Federation in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Russian propaganda outlets continue to be active in the country. A member of Serbiaʼs parliament from the ruling party even recently testified that "Serbia may be forced to begin the denazification of the Balkans," echoing Putinʼs rhetoric in Ukraine.
This morning, as part of the recent "grain agreement", the first ship with Ukrainian grain left for Lebanon. Politico writes that this is critically important as a test of the framework of a possible peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv. This first ship demonstrates the tools of diplomacy, the newspaper writes, that can be used by countries at war. However, it is not known whether the Russian Federation will comply with the agreement. On the one hand, Russia has repeatedly violated international agreements, and on the other hand, the agreement gives Russia advantages, in particular, permission to export its own grain and fertilizers. In addition, Moscow uses the agreement as a lever of propaganda in Africa. However, Russia is testing the limits of the deal by attacking Odesaʼs port infrastructure and killing grain magnate Oleksiy Vadatursky with a precision strike on his home in Mykolaiv. The restoration of grain exports will not only help reduce the global food crisis, but will also provide Ukraine with much-needed money. If Ukraine sells 20 million tons of grain, it will receive at least $1 billion in foreign exchange earnings, writes Politico.
Recently, we wrote about a column by French ex-intelligence officer Claude Moniquet, who justified the Russian edition of RBC and even called it "Russiaʼs last independent mass media." So, the Russian publication "Agentstvo" (banned in Russia, the editors work from abroad) writes that probably this and another similar column on Forbes is part of the PR campaign of the pro-Kremlin "businessman" Berozkin, who bought RBC in 2017. and which is now actively trying to get rid of the influence of sanctions. Although Politico believes that the material does not contain signs of an order, Mr. Monique did not respond to the Agencyʼs questions.