The National Bank predicts an increase in inflation by the end of the year, which will exceed 30%.
The press service of the NBU writes about this.
The invasion of Russia led to a sharp decline in economic activity and loss of economic potential. As a result, real GDP will decrease by a third in 2022. In addition, the National Bank believes that the nominal wages of Ukrainians will decrease by 12% this year, and in real terms (that is, taking into account inflation) by 27%.
At the same time, the National Bank hopes that inflation will slow down next year thanks to the improvement of logistics and the gradual growth of harvests. The decrease in world inflation and the tight monetary policy of the NBU will have an additional impact. Instead, the slowdown in inflation will be restrained by the high cost of gas and oil and the need to gradually reduce tariffs for the population to market levels. As a result, consumer inflation will fall to around 20% in 2023 and will only fall to single-digit levels in late 2024.
Next year, provided security risks are reduced, the economy is expected to return to growth. At the same time, significant losses of production and human potential will hold back the recovery of the economy. In 2023-2024, GDP will grow at a rate of about 5-6% per year. The NBU forecast assumes that the Black Sea ports of Ukraine will fully resume their work by the beginning of next year.
The alternative scenario of the forecast is that if the acute phase of the war continues, the economy will grow by only 2% in 2023, but inflation will decrease due to the suppression of consumer demand.
- In May, the National Bank announced Ukraineʼs losses during the war — more than $92 billion, that is, about half of last yearʼs gross domestic product.