Liana Fix, a Program Director in the International Affairs Department of the Körber Foundation, and Michael Kimmage, a Professor of History at the Catholic University of America, explore the possibility of further escalation of the war in Ukraine in an essay on Foreign Affairs. Throughout the essay, the authors perceive the Russo-Ukrainian war mainly as a conflict between Biden and Putin, mostly disregarding other actors. According to Fix and Kimmage, there is an unspoken understanding of what the red lines for Russia and the West. For instance, Russia would accept Western weapons in Ukraine, but not the Western troops. The West would take Russian methods of warfare as long as they donʼt include weapons of mass destruction. Yet, as the war is entering its’ six months and since it involves multiple actors, it can spin out of control even if by accident. The authors mention Cold War as an example of what might be waiting for the world ahead: phases of managed confrontation followed by abruptly intensifying conflict. Fix and Kimmage then theorize about the potential scenarios of escalation: accidental strike of a civilian plan similar to the MH-17 tragedy or Ukraine targeting a primary civilian target in Russia by mistake. Another scenario could be reminiscent of the Cuban crisis – erratic Putin could try to push the Western countries “back on their heels,” failing to anticipate a reaction to his actions. The authors believe that only studied patience and strategic ignorance could keep the war, which is to last for years to come, from exploding “out of control”.
As President Zelensky has removed two top-level law enforcement officials, Politico writes of growing concerns about the consolidation of power in Ukraine. A Western official close to Zelenksy’s office told Politico that the move appears to go in the opposite direction of the EU’s request for Kyiv to boost the independence of its law enforcement agencies as part of anti-corruption efforts. Some Ukrainian experts and activists are worried that Zelensky fired the Security Service of Ukraine chief Ivan Bakanov and prosecutor general Iryna Venedictova to consolidate his power. According to Tetiana Shevchuk, a lawyer at the Anti-Corruption Action Center in Kyiv, and YuliiaTyshchenko, an expert at the Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research, the removal of Bakanov and Venedictova would strengthen the influence of the President’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. At the same time, the Biden administration does not seem concerned, as the State Department spokesperson said they invest in institutions, not particular people.
Foreign Policy columnist Elisabeth Braw writes about another weapon in Putin’s arsenal - the European migration crisis. As more than 6 million Ukrainians have fled to the EU seeking refuge, the global food crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine drives a new migration wave from countries affected by the absence of Ukrainian grain. According to FP, the number of non-Ukrainian migrants who arrived in the EU in the last six months has almost doubled compared to the same period the previous year. Therefore, Putin is creating migration waves to destabilize the continent following the tactics of “his comrade Aleksandr Luksasheko” who encouraged migrants to come to Belarus, from where he organized transportation to the borders of Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. Putin is not giving migrants a ride, however, the outcome is the same: disturbance in EU countries. Braw writes that there are not many ethical and feasible actions that the EU could take to limit the crisis beyond helping countries from Egypt to Bangladesh get their wheat.