Foreign Policy writes that the West’s multiple launch rockets alone would not help Ukraine to start the counteroffensive. While the online narrative in Ukraine and among pro-Ukrainian audiences promotes Ukrainian victories, the facts demonstrate Ukraine is losing ground in war, writes the outlet. The arriving HIMARs (high mobility artillery rocket systems) and other machinery are supposed to change the power balance. Surprisingly, despite it’s been no secret Ukraine has been asking for HIMARs for a while now, Russia did not take any steps to adapt, commented an expert. Ukraine has demonstrated an exceptional ability to select and destroy Russian targets. According to a Ukrainian military official FP talked to, Kremlin responded by pulling back the command posts. However, it failed to disperse military supplies as Ukraine did. Ukraine’s goal is to destroy all Russian storage facilities on Ukrainian soil. Nevertheless, according to Ukrainian officials, these weapons are not enough to empower Ukraine for a counteroffensive initially planned in August. As Ukraine’s demand for longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) remains without response, and as Russia is seeking loitering munitions support from Iran, the HIMARs only arenʼt going to give Ukraine the ability to retake territories, concludes the piece.
The creative approach towards reviving the Ukrainian powerplant in shelled Okhtyrka became a topic for a recent article on The Economist. The plant’s director is aiming to find a way to ensure energy production, as the plant is the only source of heat for ten thousand local apartments. Winter is only four months away, writes the article, and it is unclear how much energy will be needed nor how much will be supplied. As part of Ukraine remains under occupation, there is a lack of gas and coal, and Russia continues targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Due to devastating warfare effects on the industry and the increasing number of Ukrainians fleeing abroad, gas consumption decreased by 50%. Therefore, writes The Economist, Ukraine should be able to cover its needs with its production backed by limited external purchases. Moreover, Naftogaz – Ukraine’s national oil and gas company – is trying to diversify energy sources. In Okhtyrka, it is manufacturing a new biomass-powered boiler that would use wood pellets. Meanwhile, the plant’s director avoids shopping in a local supermarket after being besieged by worried locals.
Analysts say Kyiv has six months to counterattack before fatigue sets in, writes The Financial Times. After Russia’s failed raid on Kyiv and after a successful advance through Luhansk oblast, the war is entering the third phase, characterized by exhaustion of both sides. The FT cites Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at the CNA military think-tank, who argues that the focus on territorial gains in eastern Ukraine obscures the bigger picture – the scale of losses and capacity of both sides to restock forces. According to experts, Ukraine has multiple weaknesses to address: a shortage of artillery ammunition, lack of skilled infantry and armored vehicles, shortage of secure radio gear, and inability to take out Russian electronic combat capabilities, writes the outlet. Yet, Russia has multiple military vulnerabilities, too, led by the struggle to recruit enough experienced troops. According to Kofman, Kherson would be an essential test of Ukraine’s ability to retake territory in a protracted war. If it fails, the hope for Kyiv to push Russian forces back would be limited. In parallel, Putin is counting on the economic pain from inflation and gas deficiencies in Europe to end the war on terms advantageous to Kremlin.