Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine on behalf of Russia, as it lacks the strength to do so, and in the last few days the occupiers have made significant progress in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk region.
This is stated in the summary of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Belarus and Russia maintain close military cooperation, and Belarusian exercises are likely in part to threaten Ukraine. However, it is unlikely that Belarus will go to war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. As previously reported by ISW, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, is unable to afford to involve even limited military resources in the war due to "internal consequences."; Belarusian forces without support are unlikely to be effective, and Russia does not have the reserves needed for a new offensive on Kyiv.
The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine warned on June 23 that Belarusian forces could carry out provocations along the border with Ukraine during the exercises. In addition, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on June 23 in Moscow to discuss current bilateral military agreements. Users of Belarusian social networks also reported that Russian planes were delivered to Gomel airport on June 21 and 22. at least 16 S-400 missiles and one Pantsir complex.
As for the situation in Donbas, Russian forces have made significant progress in the last few days in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer heavy losses, but have largely done their part in the battle, slowing down the occupiers. The head of the Luhansk oblast administration, Serhiy Haidai, said on June 23 that Ukrainian troops may have to retreat to avoid encirclement in Lysychansk. This indicates that the Ukrainian authorities are creating conditions to prepare for the final loss of both Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. As previously estimated by ISW, the loss of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk will be an important turning point in the war.
For several weeks, Ukrainian troops managed to recruit a significant amount of Russian personnel, weapons and equipment to the area, which probably weakened the overall capabilities of Russian troops, preventing them from concentrating on more advantageous areas. Russian offensive operations are likely to be suspended in the coming weeks, regardless of whether the Russians seize the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area, which is likely to allow Ukrainian forces to launch cautious counterattacks. The Institute for the Study of War emphasizes that the battle for Sievierodonetsk will not be a decisive victory for Russia.