Maximilian K. Bremer, the US Air Force colonel, and Kelly A. Grieco, a resident senior fellow with the New American Engagement Initiative, wrote an essay on War on the Rocks about Ukraine’s war impact on the air supremacy doctrine. Western air forces have been following the “air supremacy” doctrine that means “to have command of the air means to be in a position to prevent the enemy from flying while retaining the ability to fly oneself”. Ukraine’s success against one of the most significant air forces in the world offers an alternative vision, the vision of airspace denial over air superiority, write the authors. While Ukraine does not have a strong air force, it has been using surface-to-air missile systems against Russian aircrafts. The essay cites Oryx open-source intelligence data that reports 96 Russian planes destroyed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The most potent evidence of Ukrainian success in the sky is that Russians wary of venturing into Ukrainian air space. When they fly into Ukrainian airspace, they fly low to avoid radars, becoming easy targets for shoulder-fight man-portable systems, such as Stinger. The air war in Ukraine offers a view into the future of air warfare, where more minor powers are able to control and deny areas of airspace to more powerful air forces. This also means that U.S long-term ais primacy is coming to an end too, unless the U.S Air Force starts putting air denial on equal footing with air superiority missions and shifts from expensive, exquisite aircraft to cheaper and smaller vehicles, including drones.
The Guardian writes about a recent research findings outlining changes in public opinion of nine EU member-states and UK citizens opinion towards EU policy on Ukraine. The survey found that while support for Ukraine remains hight, the divide between those who want a swift end to the conflict and those who want Russia punished is deepening. According to the polling report, 73% of respondents are blaming Russis for the war, at the same time 35% want peace as soon as possible vs 22% who prioritize justice – meaning restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and holding Russia accountale. Italy has the biggest “peace” camp while Poland has the biggest “justice” camp. The report outlines that Germans, Italians, and Frenches are most concerned about the growing cost of living and energy prices, and the Swedes, Britts and Poles are worried about the threat of the nuclear war. Governments’ ability to retain public supprot for policies that might be harmful to EU citizens would become crucial, according to the report.
Politico published an op-ed by Charles A. Kupchan, a former US National Security Council member, who urges President Biden to set the table for talks over ending war in Ukraine. Kupchan writes that a negotiated end of the “conflict” is the right goal, as in his opinion Ukraine does not have combat power to expel Russia from all of its territory. Every day of war brings more deaths and more damage to the global economy. In parallel, writes Kupchan, the European unity is at risk as Germany, Italy and France worrying about the consequences of a prolonged war. Kupchan believes that Biden should start discussing war aims with Kyiv and end his stand of “non-telling Ukrainians how to negotiate peace”. The stakes are too high as this war might open an are of rivalry between liberal democracies and authocracies lead by China and Russia. The claim that Putin has to be defeated and humiliated, according to Kupchan, is wishful thinking, as the Russian dictator is poied to remain in power for years. The West should remember how to live and contain with Putin, as it has been doing for two decades. Kupchan thinks that such approach would not equal appeasement, it would be in interest of Ukraine’s own future – to avoid years long conflict and negotiate a cease-fire aiming to come to a territorial settlement.