The West has to make sacrifices if it wants to achieve long-term peace in Ukraine, writes Liam Denning, a Bloomberg columnist. Putin’s goal is not to save Russia’s energy industry, it is to divide the West within itself and from Ukraine, writes Denning. The US and Europe are openly involved in the war, therefore they could demand measures appropriate for war economies. This should include efforts to accelerate the energy transition away from Russian supplies: both through directing commodities from the US to Europe and by encouraging more in-house production. These solutions should account for decarbonization goals. Sacrifices will be required to do any of this: progressives would have to support drilling, and conservatives would have to accept climate-related conditions. Similar to addressing climate change, addressing the Russian invasion of Ukraine requires the belief that this issue is existential, and thus, requires sacrifices on multiple levels.
The Economist writes about the potential for the West to help India jump off Russian weaponry. As Western allies are worried about India’s reluctance to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as New Delhi is taking efforts to diversify its defense suppliers, the chances of enhanced defense cooperation with India are growing. As western producers cannot compete with Russia on price and as they try to keep most modern technologies in-house, the opportunity lies within joint arms production. America has already offered to help India to make advanced weapons, including reconnaissance aircraft and a system for combating aerial drones, and the UK pledged joint development of electric engines for ships and other “advanced security capabilities”. It seems India is interested in such cooperation too, the share of weapons imports from Russia has fallen from 70% in 2010-2015 to around 50% in 2016-2022 and the government officials have openly encouraged domestic defense production. The Economist warns of potential challenges, that might affect such a shift, including long-term ties between Indian defense giants and Russia. Nevertheless, Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s growing hegemony in the region is opening a door for increased cooperation between India and the West.
Foreign Affairs published an essay by Lawrence Freedman, a war studies professor, and an author, who provides a comprehensive overview of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Freedman outlines some lessons, noting though, that military analysts will continue studying this war for many years to explore the limits to military power and look for explanations for why one of the strongest and largest forces in the world performed so badly. Military power, writes Freedman, is not only about a nation’s arms and skills, it must also consider the resources of the enemy – domestic and external, contributed by allies and friends, style of command, and motivation of the soldiers. The actual war is determined by qualitative and human factors, notes Freedman, and Ukrainians had sharper tactics, brought together by command structures, from the highest political level to the lowlier field commanders, that were fit for the purpose. Putin’s war, on the other hand, is a case study of poor decisions and failure of the supreme command. Freedman writes that the value of uncentralized decision-making is probably one of the key lessons learned from the war, which is only valuable when the troops are committed to the mission and understand its political purpose.