Russiaʼs blockade of Ukraineʼs southern ports could be eased due to the departure of Russian warships from the shores of Ukraine. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"The Ukrainian Navy reported on June 6 that they had succeeded in pushing a grouping of the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 100 km away from the Ukrainian coast but did not specify a timeframe for this statement," analysts predict.
As a result, the Russian navy is forced to change its tactics in the Black Sea and rely more on the Bal and Bastion coastal defense systems in occupied Kherson and Crimea, as well as increase its air defenses on Zmiiny Island.
ISW also took into account reports from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine that Russian troops had transferred additional S-300 air defense divisions to Crimea.
"these reports suggest that Ukrainian naval pressure and anti-ship missiles—likely including those provided by the UK and other states—have forced the Russian grouping in the northwestern Black Sea to rely more on coastal and air defense as they are pushed away from the Ukrainian shoreline," analysts said.
ISW experts predict that "Ukraine will likely attempt to leverage these successes to alleviate the economic pressure of the Russian blockade on Ukraine’s ports and seek additional economic support from the west, including possibly opening up new routes for international aid to Ukraine."