How the international media covered the Russo-Ukrainian war, May 11
As it is becoming evident that Russia is going to suffer from the consequences of its’ attempt to invade Ukraine for years to come, the US may have a better chance to build relations with China, writes Bloomberg. From this perspective, the war in Ukraine (if Russia is defeated) may even have a positive long-term impact on the US position in Asia. Weakened Russia and increased European (and specifically German) defense spending would allow the White House to accelerate its shift toward China, according to several officials Bloomberg interviewed. This would likely include shifting troops and weaponry and expanding economic and political influence across the Indo-Pacific, which would continue efforts undertaken by Biden’s administration before the war. The US has been making efforts to strengthen alliances with Japan, India, and Australia. Biden’s focus on Asia will be demonstrated later this month when he is going to travels to South Korea and Japan to demonstrate unity against North Korea.
Adrian Bonenberger, a writer, and veteran who helped train Ukrainian troops this March wrote a column on Foreign Affairs where he explores the transformations of the Ukrainian Army since 1991. While some analysts think that NATO training made the Ukrainian army strong enough to push back the Russian invasion, Bonenberger believes that it is not the key factor at all. Looking back, Bonenberger writes about a series of bad decisions and economic crises that led to the shrinking of the Ukrainian military from nearly 800,000 human units in 1991 to 130,000 in 2014, when Russia first invaded. Moreover, due to corruption, according to Bonenberger’s sources, there were about 7,000 soldiers in three brigades that were “combat ready”. Of the 800 tanks, there were a dozen operational – those used for military parades. Betrayal by traitors was a huge problem for Ukraine in 2014 when the military and intelligence agencies were staffed by Yanukovychʼs pro-Russian managers. Russia was well aware of the weakness of Ukraine’s Army and used this factor to invade. This initial defeat made Ukraine learn some immediate lessons, within several months the military quickly expanded to tens of thousands of Ukrainians. The Ukrainian government authorized the formation of volunteer units, supported by private and corporate donations, these units like the Azov regiment, have been fighting back to back with state military units. Bonenberger first engaged in training Ukrainian volunteer units back in 2015, and he writes the US counterparts were learning more about war from the Ukrainians than vice versa. The experience of 2014-2015 is probably what was crucial to Ukraine’s joint vision of itself as a nation and for the militaryʼs understanding of its’ strong and weak sides. The war helped get rid of corruption and traitors in the Army, and the volunteer units adopted agile bottom-up military hierarchies and regulations. By the end of 2015 Ukrainian army had an innovative and meritocratic culture, and along with western training, this is a key factor in its success. “Those accomplishments belong to the brave men and women of Ukraine’s military and also in part to a Ukrainian public and civil society that are proving themselves to be democratic, humanistic, and deserving of Western support,” – summarizes Bonenberger.
Following Presidents Macronʼs visit to Berlin on May 9, “Europe Day”, BBC Europe editor Katya Adler is writing about potential shifts in EU power dynamics. When Macron was first elected it was hard for him to compete for leadership with Angela Merkel, but now the situation is different. As Olaf Scholz took his time before taking action, Germany is giving an impression of “a backseat member of the Western alliance” countering the Kremlin. So, reelected French President Macron believes this is his chance to demonstrate leadership. Before his trip to Berlin, Macron shared his view of the EU future in a speech addressing the European Parliament. The key is the idea of founding an outer EU circle of nations, including the UK and others wanting to join – Ukraine and Western Balkans. This is also in line with Macron’s repeated attempts to engage in diplomatic talks with Putin. The true drivers of the NATO and EU defense decisions regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are Poland, Baltic countries, and former communist countries including the Czech Republic. Hungary, on the other side, is blocking the EU plans for oil sanctions against Russia. And neither Germany nor France is able to rein in Orban, which puts a question on whether the EU foreign policy decision unanimity rule is viable in these unprecedented times.