German Der Spiegel published a big interview with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, where he spoke of German plans and perspectives towards Russo-Ukrainian war. According to Scholz, it is important to understand historical context of German policy on peace and security – the knowledge of consequences of war does not equal instictive pacifism, but German struggles for peace through deescalation. He claims Germany has been doing everything within existing capacities to assist Ukraine within the options available to Bundeswehr and at the same time making sure Germany does not become a party in this war. In the short-term Ukraine needs weapons it can use – that is why supplies are coming mostly from Eastern European NATO partners who had such equipment in stock. In the mid-term perspective Scholz is committed to help Ukraine develop its defensive capability, also with Western weapons. As for the gas and oil embargo – Scholz doesn’t see it could end the war and he wants to avoid economic crisis in Germany and Europe. Scholz refused to critisize his predcessors and claims the only one to blame for war is Putin and his imperialism.
The growing counter-space capabilities, particularly by China and Russia, threaten U.S. national security and creates tonnes of space debris, writes National Defense. The United States is seeking to establish international norms to reduce the chances of conflict in orbit, including an attempt to agree on banning anti-satellite tests. Russia conducted the most recent kinetic anti-satellite test on Nov. 15 when it destroyed one of its own defunct spacecraft, and China conducted a similar test in 2007, which left a debris field that is still circling the globe today. The outlet states there are two approaches the U.S. can take to “multilateralize” the commitment: a non-binding UN resolution calling on states to refrain from destructive anti-satellite tests, or a legally binding arms control agreement in a long-term perspective.
Taiwan has been compared to Ukraine multiple times since the beginning of the Russian invasion, as China openly claims Taiwan should be its part. The Economist looks into Ukrainian resistance and identifies lessons Taiwan could learn when preparing for potential escalation with China. Taiwan, which still calls itself the Republic of China (ROC), has a complicated geo-political status, it is a democracy and the world’s top producer of semiconductors, and yet it has never declared independence and has official diplomatic relations with only 14 countries. The state of Taiwan’s defense is poor, it neither has much sufficient equipment nor trained reserve. It seemed if China invaded, the Taiwanese would have had not many chances to push back. The Russian invasion of Ukraine brings both fears and hope to Taiwan: fear as the invasion seems now a realistic scenario, and hope as Ukraine is able to resist its way bigger invader. The key lessons from the war in Ukraine for Taiwan are the importance of time: to prepare an internal defense strategy and international support before a war, and once it starts make sure Chian doesn’t achieve victory within days. Then Taiwan would be able, as was Ukraine, to win military and moral support from the existing and potential allies across the world.
There is a brand-new line of drones within the latest military assistance package the US is sending to Ukraine, Fortune writes. The Phoenix Ghost has never been used in combat before and, according to Pentagon officials, was partly designed with Ukraine in mind. Ukraine is going to get 121 Phoenix Ghosts, which are similar to the "switchblade” drones, currently in active use by Ukrainian Armed Forces. Kirby said he had “no idea” how the drone got its name—which does seem like a misnomer because, unlike a phoenix, the drone will not rise again. The unmanned aerial vehicle is designed to be flown only once.
The New York Times editorial board opinion column today wrote about acknowledging the limits of sanctions imposed against Russia. While the sanctions have been able to hit the Russian economy and sent a vital message of support to Ukraine, there are limits to what they are likely to achieve. Historically, sanctions have not been very effective in changing regimes, and the only sanctions that gain broader success are the multilateral ones, such as unplugging from the international financial system. But sanctions alone — at least those currently considered by EU countries — will not make Russia step back. Moreover, sanctions can have unintended consequences – like strengthening the dictator’s grip on power and stronger control over the economy. Therefore, the US and its allies have to both consider a clear plan for the next steps and list benchmarks for sanctions relief in the future.
Ivo H. Daadler, a former U.S. Ambassador to NATO wrote a column on The Atlantic titled “Let Ukraine in”, in which he claims that Ukraine should become a member to EU and NATO in order to make sure it is truly free and independent. Daadler writes that had Ukraine been a member of the Northern Alliance – Russia would have been unlikely to invade. As NATO is reconsidering its’ strategy and security needs of the member-countries, accepting Ukraine as a member should be a part of this process. The EU has moved swiftly with Ukraine already submitting an application to become a member-state, however, there are two key challenges when it comes to security guarantees for Ukraine. First, the membership process can take months, if not years, and second, EU security guarantees while significant, can’t bind US to Ukrainian defense. These two issues can be addressed through NATO membership: the process can be shorter if all 30 members agree to accept Ukraine as a member, and Ukraine would get security guarantees. Of course, there are obstacles on this way – but according to Daadler, Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO would represent the final defeat of Putin’s failed strategy.