Forbes writes about chances Ukraine has to enhance its military fleet, considering the high rate of plane losses and damaged support infrastructure. In 54 days, the Russians shot down no fewer than 15 Ukrainian jets that analysts visually can confirm. Moreover, Moscow has been going after Ukrainian airbases and their fuel storage. The result was a steady erosion in Ukraine’s flyable fighter fleet – there have been no media mentions of Ukrainian Su-24 bombers for a while, and only MiG squadrons with their greater numbers can endure more losses for longer. According to the article, in theory, Ukraine could have grown its MiG-29 fleet by 55 airframes if it got support from Slovakia, Poland, and Bulgaria, but in a long-term perspective there are no other sources of replacements once’s the current batch is gone. Another challenge is training the pilots, both formerly inactive and new ones. This probably partly explains why drones such as Bayraktars account for an increasing proportion of Ukraine’s air raids on Russian troops.
Boris Johnson plays the Ukraine card as he tries to turn the page on the Partygate scandal, writes Politico. Johnson was fined by the police last week over a 2020 indoor birthday party – illegal under COVID rules, which provoked a discussion of his ability to perform the Prime Minister job. Johnson immediately tried to shift attention to war in Ukraine, saying that because of the anger toward him he felt “an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people and to respond in the best traditions of our country to Putin’s barbaric onslaught against Ukraine”.
Todayʼs The New York Times newsletter featured an article exploring the potential outcome of this “second phase” of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the advantages of the sides. The benefits that Russia is going to have at this “second phase” of war include the ability to concentrate troops at one frontline, a shorter supply chain as Donbas borders with Russia, familiarity with the territory, and potential support from part of citizens (according to pre-war research). At the same time, the public opinion might have changed following atrocities committed by Russian troops, Ukrainian troops are much more motivated than Russians, and the West is racing to supply Ukraine with weapons, machinery, and ammunition. The NYT cites The Institute for the Study of War writing that “The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes — poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale — that impeded prior offensives”.
Bloomberg spoke to 10 people who have access to the Kremlin’s “pinnacle of power” who confirm that some in the Kremlin elite think the invasion of Ukraine was a terrible mistake. All 10 sources spoke on condition of anonymity fearing potential persecution. According to them, Putin is not going to change his plans, and currently, there are no prospects of challenging him in Russia. The circle of Putin’s advisors is narrowing to people who tell him what he wants to hear. He believes this war to be part of his historic mission, therefore if he fails, he might use limited nuclear weapons. There still is deep support for the war among the elite and in public, as the initial shock and disruption from sanctions have given way to a kind of surreal stability in Russia. Still, more and more top insiders start believing that commitment to continue the invasion will doom Russia to years of isolation and will leave the economy crippled, its security compromised and its global influence gutted.