The government has defined the priorities of the Budget Declaration for 2027-2029. It envisages two scenarios for the development of events — the end of the war or its continuation.
This was reported by the MP Olha Vasylevska-Smahlyuk after the meeting.
Among the priorities of the declaration is to maintain funding for programs provided for in the 2026 budget. These include social aspects, in particular, examination programs, nutrition for schoolchildren, teacher salaries, and increasing the birth rate.
Under the end-of-war scenario, inflation in 2027 will be 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of that year will be UAH 48.3.
The Ministry of Finance also predicts a wage increase: in 2027 — by 10.4%, in 2028 — by 8.7%, and in 2029 — by 7.1%. The subsistence minimum may increase in 2027 — by 10.9%, in 2028 — by 8.9%, and in 2029 — by 7.1%.
Ukraine will also borrow more next year. The government expects the growth of public debt at the end of 2026 to be 106.1% of GDP. In 2027 — 113%. Ukraineʼs need for international financing in 2027 — UAH 2 trillion 134.5 billion.
In addition, the government intends to gradually weaken the hryvnia. The average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia will increase from 44.4 UAH/$ in 2026 to 50.7 UAH/$ in 2029. By the end of 2029, the dollar will cost UAH 51.5.
If active hostilities end this year, the government predicts a rapid reduction in the budget deficit: 18.5% of GDP in 2026, 17.7% in 2027, 11.1% in 2028, and 5.5% in 2029.
If the security situation improves, the need for military spending will decrease. Budget spending is expected to peak in 2027 and then begin to decline:
- 2026 — UAH 4.77 trillion;
- 2027 — UAH 5.05 trillion;
- 2028 — UAH 4.87 trillion;
- 2029 — UAH 4.55 trillion.
If peace can be achieved in 2026, the government expects economic growth to accelerate: in 2026 +2.6% real GDP, in 2027 — +4.5%, in 2028 — +5.3%, in 2029 — +6.7%.
Nominal GDP (the total value of all goods and services produced in the country, calculated in current prices) over this period should increase from UAH 10.1 trillion in 2026 to almost UAH 15 trillion in 2029.
- On June 10, the Ukrainian state budget received €236 million under the World Bankʼs Peace in Ukraine project. The funds will be used for social spending and pensions.
For more news and in-depth stories from Ukraine, please follow us on X.