A new UN study shows that a US-Israeli war against Iran could wipe out nearly $200 billion in economic growth in the Middle East.
Bloomberg writes about this.
According to the analysis, Arab countries could lose between $120 billion and $194 billion in gross domestic product due to disruptions caused by the war.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has analysed a range of different scenarios to determine how the conflict could affect countries in the region. The report notes that the consequences could be severe even if the war ends relatively quickly.
The overall losses could lead to a four percentage point increase in the regionʼs unemployment rate, the loss of approximately 3.6 million jobs, and an increase in the number of people living in poverty by approximately four million.
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Levant region will be hit hardest — each could lose more than 5.2% of its GDP.
The conflict, now in its second month, has already caused a sharp rise in global energy prices, destabilizing the global economy. A previous UN report showed that the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz would raise the prices of food and fertilizer, which would hit poorer countries particularly hard.
War in the Middle East
On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. These attacks killed Iranʼs Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and almost the entire military leadership of the country — about 40 key high-ranking officials. A new ayatollah was elected on March 8, and he was Mojtaba Khamenei (the son of the deceased Ali Khamenei).
Iran, in response to the US and Israeli attacks, has begun shelling US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE and firing missiles at Israel. Some Iranian drones and missiles have hit infrastructure and residential areas in Arab countries.
The war has halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. About a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports pass through it, tens of millions of barrels a day. Markets reacted immediately, sending oil, gas and precious metals soaring, and on March 9, global oil prices topped $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly four years.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump claims that negotiations are currently underway with Iran, allegedly initiated by Tehran itself. During them, according to the US president, the parties reached an agreement on 15 points. One of them is Iranʼs refusal to give up nuclear weapons. Amid the negotiations, the US suspended attacks on Iranian energy facilities until April 6.
Other clauses of the deal stipulate that Tehran will limit its defense capabilities, end support for regional proxy groups and restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The plan also requires Iran to hand over highly enriched uranium to the United States.
On March 30, Trump reported that Iran had agreed to most of the demands of his 15-point peace plan. As a confirmation of its readiness for the agreements, Iran handed over a “gift” to the United States — 20 oil tankers that passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan acted as a mediator in the negotiations between Iran and the United States, and the countryʼs Foreign Ministry stated that it was ready to hold a meeting of representatives of these countries in the coming days in its capital, Islamabad.
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