When the US and Israel prepared for a new war with Iran, they expected a quick uprising there. Several weeks after the war began, this never happened.
This is reported by The New York Times, citing more than ten sources among current and former American, Israeli and other foreign officials.
Mossad chief David Barnea presented a plan to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that would allow his agency to rally the Iranian opposition and incite unrest and other insurgency that could even lead to the collapse of the Iranian government. He also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.
Despite doubts about the planʼs viability among senior US officials and some in other Israeli intelligence agencies, both Netanyahu and Trump had an optimistic view of the situation. They believed that assassinating Iranʼs leaders early in the war, followed by a series of intelligence operations aimed at encouraging regime change, could lead to a mass uprising and bring the war to a quick end.
Three weeks into the war, the Iranian uprising had yet to break out. American and Israeli intelligence assessed Iran’s theocratic government as weak but relatively stable, and fear of Iranian security forces had reduced the likelihood of both an uprising at home and cross-border militia incursions from outside Iran.
Rather than implode from within, the Iranian government escalated the conflict, launching strikes and counterstrikes against military bases, cities, and ships around the Persian Gulf, as well as vulnerable oil and gas facilities.
Although Netanyahuʼs rhetoric has softened, he still insists that the American and Israeli air campaign will be supported by ground forces. Behind the scenes, however, he has expressed disappointment that Mossadʼs promises to foment an uprising in Iran have not been fulfilled.
At a security meeting a few days after the war began, the prime minister said that the American president could decide to end the war any day, and that Mossad operations had not yet yielded results.
Many senior American officials, as well as Israeli military intelligence analysts (AMAN), were skeptical of Israelʼs plan for a mass uprising during the conflict. The American military leadership told Trump that Iranians would not protest as long as the United States and Israel were dropping bombs.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment, but a senior administration official noted that in his first statements after the war began , Donald Trump advised Iranians to stay home and urged them to take to the streets only after the air campaign was over.
Kurdish version
While many details of the Mossadʼs plans remain secret, one element included supporting an invasion by Iranian Kurdish militia groups based in northern Iraq. The Mossad has long-standing ties to Kurdish groups, and American officials have said that both the CIA and Mossad have provided weapons and other support to Kurdish forces in recent years.
During the early days of the war, Israeli jets and bombers struck Iranian military and police targets in northwest Iran, in part to help pave the way for Kurdish forces. But US officials no longer support the idea. A week after the war began, on March 7, Trump said he had explicitly ordered Kurdish leaders not to send militias into the country.
Turkey has warned the Trump administration not to support any Kurdish action. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conveyed the message to Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a recent conversation, according to a Turkish diplomat. Turkey, a US NATO ally, opposes any operations by armed Kurds as it battles Kurdish separatists within its own borders.
The future of Iran
The US officials briefed on pre-war intelligence assessments said the CIA had been assessing a variety of possible developments in Iran since the conflict began. The intelligence community considered a complete collapse of the Iranian government a relatively unlikely outcome.
Other US officials familiar with the intelligence said that even when the government was under pressure, as it was during the mass protests in the country in January, it was able to quell the uprising relatively quickly.
American intelligence estimates suggest that armed factions within the Iranian government could rebel against each other or take steps that could lead to civil war. However, the reports suggest that these groups are more likely to support rival religious groups than to represent any democratic movement. The most likely outcome is that hardliners in the current government will retain control of the levers of power.
For more news and in-depth stories from Ukraine, please follow us on X.