After three weeks of war, the administration of US President Donald Trump has begun preliminary discussions on what a peace deal with Iran might look like.
Axios writes about this with reference to sources.
Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved in discussions about the potential deal, sources say.
Any agreement to end the war must include opening the Strait of Hormuz, addressing Iranʼs highly enriched uranium stockpile, and a long-term agreement on Iranʼs nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for proxy forces in the region.
In recent days, according to a US official and two other sources, there has been no direct contact between the US and Iran, but the parties have exchanged messages through Egypt, Qatar and the UK. Egypt and Qatar have told the US and Israel that Iran is interested in talks, but on very tough terms.
Among Iranʼs demands: a ceasefire, guarantees that the war will not resume in the future, as well as compensation.
In return, the US wants Iran to make six commitments:
- abandoning the missile program for five years;
- zero uranium enrichment;
- decommissioning the nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, which the US and Israel bombed last year;
- strict external control over the creation and use of nuclear centrifuges and related equipment;
- arms control agreements with countries in the region limiting missiles to 1 000 units;
- stopping funding proxy forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, or Hamas in Gaza.
Iran has repeatedly rejected some of these demands in the past, and Tehran emphasizes that it is difficult to negotiate with a president who previously engaged in dialogue and then suddenly struck back.
Trump himself said on Friday that he was not opposed to talks, but that he was not interested in meeting Iranʼs demands for a ceasefire at this time. He also said that he considered the demand for reparations "unacceptable", according to a US official.
Between the lines: Another official noted that there may be room for negotiations on the return of frozen Iranian assets.
War in the Middle East
On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. These attacks killed Iranʼs Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and almost the entire military leadership of the country — about 40 key high-ranking officials. A new ayatollah was elected on March 8, and he was Mojtaba Khamenei (the son of the deceased Ali Khamenei).
Iran, in response to the US and Israeli attacks, has begun shelling US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE and firing missiles at Israel. Some Iranian drones and missiles have hit infrastructure and residential areas in Arab countries.
The war has halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. About a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports pass through it, tens of millions of barrels a day. Markets reacted immediately, sending oil, gas and precious metals soaring in price.
In particular, on March 9, world oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time in almost four years.
To keep prices down, the International Energy Agency has decided to release 400 million barrels of oil, and the US plans to release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve. On March 12, the US lifted sanctions on the purchase of Russian oil that was stuck at sea for 30 days, and a week later it gave permission for Iranian oil.
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