Russian oil exports have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, driven by a combination of Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks.
Bloomberg writes about this with reference to Vortexa data.
Total seaborne oil product shipments averaged 1.89 million barrels per day in the first 26 days of October, the lowest level since early 2022. Even with the increase in diesel exports, weak crude and fuel oil shipments, particularly from Baltic ports following attacks on the Ust-Luga export hub, weighed on overall shipments. Adverse weather conditions near the region in recent days may also have affected port operations.
The latest US sanctions targeting oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil have added further uncertainty, forcing traders to change payment routes and flight times ahead of the November 21 sanctions deadline.
In the near term, diesel exports will remain fairly stable, as most shipments are destined for geographically close markets such as Turkey and African countries, where they can be delivered before new sanctions come into effect. Crude oil and fuel oil flows are more vulnerable, and long voyages to Asia expose some cargoes to the risk of delays.
Since Russia no longer releases official production figures, traders are tracking seaborne shipments to gauge the country’s oil output. Crude oil supplies have fallen from a peak of 317,000 barrels per day in nearly two and a half years. Oil flows are still restricted after the attacks on Ust-Luga in September. The terminal accounts for more than 60% of Russia’s oil exports.
Diesel and gas oil supplies rose 2% from the previous month to about 740 000 barrels per day. Increased exports from the Black Sea helped offset weak flows from the main Baltic transport hub at Primorsk.
Fuel oil flows fell 10% to 710 000 barrels per day, the lowest level in three months, while supplies of refining feedstocks such as vacuum gas oil rose 6% to about 70 000 barrels per day.
- In late August, Reuters, citing three sources, reported that Russia was trying to increase oil exports after Ukrainian attacks on refineries. At that time, Russia increased its plan to export crude oil from European ports by 200 000 barrels per day. However, technical difficulties arose before the plan could be implemented.
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