European leaders are considering creating a 40-kilometer buffer zone between Russian and Ukrainian positions as part of a peace deal. The United States is not participating in the discussion of this initiative.
Politico reports this, citing five European diplomats.
In the context of post-war or ceasefire scenarios in Ukraine, the creation of a buffer zone is being considered by military and civilian officials as one possible proposal.
The publication writes that any peacekeeping mission will likely perform dual functions — patrolling near the demilitarized zone and training Ukrainian military personnel.
However, as Politico notes, opinions differ on the depth of the zone, and it is also unclear whether Ukraine would accept such an option, as it could involve territorial concessions. The idea of a buffer zone has been supported by Russia.
“The Russians are not afraid of the Europeans. And if they think that a few British and French observers will be able to deter them from invading Ukraine, they are mistaken,” said a former Pentagon official who was responsible for European and NATO policy in the administration of former US President Barack Obama.
Under what conditions will a buffer zone be created?
The question of the number of troops needed to patrol such a zone remains open. Various options are being discussed, ranging from 4 000 to about 60 000 troops. But the countries have not yet made any commitments.
One European official said the allies are holding back from publicly announcing troop numbers while they await key details, including rules of engagement for NATO forces on the front lines, scenarios for responding to a potential escalation by Russia, and whether proxy countries would be needed if the Kremlin opposed the presence of NATO forces in the buffer zone.
Some countries are also concerned that a buffer zone could actually expose Ukrainian cities to even greater risk of attack or re-invasion by Russia. In addition, Politico writes that the idea of a buffer zone “could significantly deplete the limited resources of peacekeeping forces on the continent”.
Poland and Germany have stated that they are not interested in deploying their troops in Ukraine, while small Estonia has even promised to provide part of the contingent.
And France and Britain are likely to form the core of the foreign military contingent, as they persuade other countries to provide military assistance. But this has worried NATO members bordering Russia, including Poland. They worry that the country will remain vulnerable to a possible attack. The allies have also warned the Pentagon that the increase in the contingent could weaken the defenses of the allianceʼs eastern flank.
In general, the partners expect that the bulk of the forces in the event of a ceasefire or the creation of a buffer zone will still be provided by Ukraine.
“Everyone is trying to act as quickly as possible on security guarantees so that Trump doesn’t change his mind about pressuring Putin to reach an agreement,” said one European official.
- The idea of creating a buffer zone is not the first time that it has been discussed. In May, the US President Donald Trumpʼs special representative Keith Kellogg said that Ukraine had proposed creating a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone around the front. However, Volodymyr Zelensky later said that this had not been officially proposed to Ukraine.
- In addition, according to him, it is unclear from which line to count. He emphasized that long-range artillery reaches 40 kilometers, and drones fly 50-100 kilometers. If we talk about a 15-kilometer withdrawal of troops, then there will be no Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kherson — this will mean that "we will not have Kherson”.
- The president explained that experience since 2014 shows that during the ceasefire, Russian troops "dug and walked" — 100, 200, 300 meters daily. And therefore the contact line was different from the line of freezing the conflict.
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