Ukraine will likely be forced to agree to a settlement of the war with Russia this year that would freeze hostilities but not lead to a comprehensive peace agreement.
This conclusion was reached by analysts at the JPMorganChase Geopolitics Center.
They point out that at the current pace of Russian advance, it would take about 118 years to take over all of Ukraine. So Putin will seek to strike a deal that is beneficial to his overall goal of eventually establishing control over Kyiv.
Analysts write that the Russian-Ukrainian war has “entered the endgame” and a ceasefire will come by the end of the second quarter of 2025, that is, by July. They consider the four most likely scenarios for the development of events.
Scenario "South Korea"
Ukraine will not receive NATO membership or full restoration of its territorial integrity. However, if it is possible to ensure the presence of European military forces in the country as a "signal barrier", backed by American guarantees of assistance and intelligence support, then the 80% of Ukraine that remains under Kyivʼs control will be put on a significantly more stable, prosperous and democratic path of development.
The Westʼs decision to use approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian state assets could also provide a good start for Ukraineʼs reconstruction.
Analysts consider this option to be the best, but estimate its reality to be quite low — as a 15% probability.
Scenario "Israel"
This scenario involves strong and sustained military and economic support without a significant foreign military presence. This option would likely still give Ukraine the space to become a fortress, modernize its military, and eventually create its own deterrent. But war would always be around the corner.
Putin, however, will still demand sufficient economic benefits (including the lifting of sanctions) and closer relations with the US.
Analysts consider this scenario "still good", and its probability is estimated at 20%.
Scenario "Georgia"
In the absence of both foreign troops and strong military support, Ukraine will experience constant instability, slowed growth and recovery, a gradual fading of external support, and a virtual halt in the process of integration with the West (i.e., EU and NATO membership), with a gradual drift back into Russiaʼs orbit of influence.
Analysts consider this option to be imperfect, but the most likely, with a probability of 50%.
Scenario "Belarus"
If the United States withdraws support for Ukraine—or is perceived to do so—and Europe fails to fill the gap, Russia will insist on its maximalist demands and seek Ukraine’s complete surrender, turning it into a vassal state of Moscow.
In this scenario, Russia would effectively win the war, divide the West, and irrevocably undermine the post-World War II world order.
This is the worst of the described scenarios, but its probability is the lowest and on par with the "South Korea" scenario — 15%.
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