Without American military assistance, Ukraine is capable of conducting hostilities at the current pace until the summer, but after that, ammunition shortages and problems with the lack of the most modern weapons may arise.
This is reported by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing sources.
If the US stops helping Ukraine with its defense, it will have to increase its military production even more, as will Europe, which is preparing to try to make up for the deficit.
Last year, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Norway collectively provided Ukraine with nearly $25 billion in military support. This exceeds the amount of American aid for 2024. Europe has also significantly increased the production of artillery shells over the past year and is in discussions to increase EU aid to Ukraine to $30 billion by 2025.
Meanwhile, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, since the start of the full-scale war, the United States has provided Ukraine with nearly $70 billion in military aid.
At the same time, Ukraine has built up its own ammunition production and now produces $30 billion worth of it per year, which is six times more than a year earlier. In addition, in 2024, Ukraine produced almost 1.5 million drones. This year, it plans to produce 3 000 missiles and 30 000 long-range drones.
Overall, Ukraine now creates or finances almost 55% of its military equipment, the US supplies approximately 20%, and Europe supplies 25%.
However, in the short term, it will not be possible to replace Americaʼs advanced air defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery. Europe simply does not produce enough of these assets, and in some cases, it does not produce them at all. For example, only the United States produces the Patriot air defense systems, which shoot down Russian ballistic missiles.
When these American stocks run out, Ukraine will not be able to strike at long distances and protect rear positions. This includes, among other things, the ATACMS missile system.
The US President Donald Trump regularly criticizes military aid provided to Ukraine, and many Republicans in Congress opposed the latest aid package to Ukraine, which was approved in April last year.
Before leaving office, former President Joe Biden tried to help Ukraine continue the fight as long as possible, so his administration shipped weapons from the Pentagonʼs stockpiles and signed contracts with the US defense industry to purchase ammunition, air defense, vehicles, etc. These deliveries will continue until 2026.
Former Pentagon official and former assistant to the US Secretary of Defense Wallander noted that the Biden administration wanted to support the future administrationʼs strategy (as they understood it at the time): to negotiate from a position of strength and tell Putin that the Ukrainians could continue to fight.
Analysts suggest that the US may stop direct aid but allow Europe to purchase American weapons for Ukraine. Otherwise, this will become a serious challenge not only for Kyiv, but also for the security of all of Europe.
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