The Ministry of Defense of Russia has prepared a report with a forecast of the development of the military and political situation in the world until 2045 — with the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood and the division of the territory of Ukraine into three parts.
This was first reported by the Interfax-Ukraine agency with reference to intelligence sources. This was also confirmed by Babel sources.
"There is nothing globally new here. They have submitted all this before and are resuscitating it," says the interlocutor of Babel.
Through governments and representatives of foreign countries, Russia will try to convey the forecast to the new US administration. According to the Russian forecast, the territory of Ukraine can be divided as follows:
- "new regions of Russia" — provides for the official entry of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, as well as Crimea into the Russian Federation. Russia has concentrated its main military efforts on this task;
- "pro-Russian state entity" — provides for the creation of a state entity with pro-Russian power in the territories of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr regions and in Kyiv. This also includes the rejection of Euro-Atlantic integration and Russian military presence (location of military bases such as unrecognized Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia);
- "disputed territories" include the Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Transcarpathian regions. The Kremlin believes that the future of these territories should be decided between Russia and other neighbouring states — Hungary, Poland, and Romania.
The Kremlin also predicts the development of international processes according to four main scenarios. Thus, Russians assess the scenarios "Dominance of the USA and the West" and "Chinaʼs acquisition of the status of the worldʼs leading power" as unfavorable for Russia and believe that they may arise in case of losing or freezing the war with Ukraine.
At the same time, in the scenarios "Formation of a multipolar world and division of spheres of influence by leading actors" and "Regionalization/chaos" Russia predicts a victory over Ukraine and a development of the situation in the world acceptable to Moscow.
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