Two American experts on national security related to the expected candidate for the presidency of the United States from the Republican Party Donald Trump told Politico that he is "negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin about how much territory of Ukraine Moscow can keep."
Trump is considering an agreement with the Russian Federation for a quick end to the war, which he has repeatedly spoken about. Trump is also considering, within the framework of the agreement, NATOʼs commitment not to expand to the east — in particular, to Ukraine and Georgia. These are his so-called cards on the negotiating table. However, an expert close to Trump says that it will have its own requirements. He repeated the statement that Trump, in the event of Putinʼs intransigence, will increase support for Ukraine with weapons.
As for NATO, Trumpʼs second term in office will inevitably lead to a radical reorientation of the bloc, defense experts who may join the Trump administration told Politico.
According to them, the US will not leave NATO, but will put pressure on European countries and demand that they increase defense spending at the level of at least 2% of GDP. Otherwise, the countries "will not benefit from the defense generosity and security guarantees of the United States." This can be seen as a violation of Article 5 of the bloc agreement. Members of Trumpʼs team say the article is flexible and does not require any member to respond to an alliance adversary with military force.
According to people on the Trump team, the US will maintain its "nuclear umbrella" over Europe, its air force, as well as naval forces and bases in Germany, Britain and Turkey. However, the main forces of infantry, armored vehicles, logistical support and artillery will eventually be transferred to the area of responsibility of the Europeans, that is, the Americans will leave Europe.
This is mostly explained by the growth of the foreign debt of the US, the low recruitment of people in the US troops and the burden on the defense and industrial base, which cannot fully cope with the challenge of confrontation between Russia and China.
- At the end of June, Trumpʼs advisers presented a plan to end the war in Ukraine. According to him, the USA will not give weapons without peace negotiations with the Russian Federation. It also provides for a ceasefire during peace talks. At the same time, the US will warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate will lead to increased support for Ukraine. The plan also proposes to force Moscow to negotiate by promising to postpone Ukraineʼs NATO membership for a long period.
- The authorities of Ukraine have repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine will never make territorial concessions.