In an interview with The Economist, Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (known as GUR) Vadym Skibitsky talked about the Russian three-level plan to destabilize Ukraine, the direction of Russiaʼs future offensive and the end of the war with a treaty.
"The problem is very simple — we donʼt have weapons"
According to Vadym Skibitsky, the situation on the battlefield for Ukraine is now more difficult than at any time since the first days of the full-scale Russian invasion, and it will get worse. First of all, the Russian army will continue its attempts to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The occupiers were ordered to "take something" before Victory Day on May 9 or before Putinʼs visit to Beijing.
"Our problem is very simple — we have no weapons. They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us," said the deputy head of GUR.
And he added that Russia is preparing to attack the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. When this will happen depends on the strength of the Ukrainian defense in the east. However, Skibitsky suggests that the main attack will begin "at the end of May or the beginning of June."
So far, Russia has involved 514 thousand occupiers in the great war in Ukraine. The northern group, which is based on the border with Kharkiv region, currently has 35 thousand soldiers, but it is planned to increase it to 50-70 thousand. Also, Russia is creating a "division of reserves" — from 15 to 20 thousand people — in the central part of the country.
However, Skibitsky believes that this is "not enough" to capture a large city, but it is enough for a smaller task.
"A quick entry and exit operation is possible. But the operation to capture Kharkiv or even the city of Sumy is another level. The Russians know this. And we know it," he said.
"Three-layer" destabilization plan
The first and main element of the plan is military. Although the US has finally approved military aid to Ukraine, it will be weeks before it reaches the battlefield. The aid is unlikely to match Russiaʼs stockpile of missiles or create a reliable defense against Russiaʼs low-tech guided aerial bombs.
The second element is a disinformation campaign aimed at disrupting mobilization in Ukraine and undermining the political legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky (his presidential term tentatively ends on May 20). The Constitution of Ukraine allows an indefinite extension of his powers as president during martial law.
The third element is the Russian campaign to isolate Ukraine internationally.
"They will shake up the situation as much as they can," Vadym Skibitsky emphasized.
Such wars end only with treaties
The deputy head of GUR does not see a possibility for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield, because even if the Ukrainian army pushes the Russian army back to the borders, it will not end the war. According to him, such wars can end only with treaties.
Ukraine and Russia are fighting for the "most advantageous position" before potential negotiations. Vadym Skibitsky believes that substantive negotiations will begin no earlier than the second half of 2025, as Moscow will face serious "headwinds" by then. Currently, Russian military production capacity has increased, but due to a lack of materials and engineers, it will reach a plateau by early 2026.
"We will continue to fight. We have no choice. We want to live. But the outcome of the war [...] depends not only on us," concluded Vadym Skibitsky, hinting at Europeʼs role in helping Ukraine.