Lawrence Friedman, a professor of military studies at Kingʼs College London, writes in a column on Foreign Affairs about why mobilization will not save Putin. Throughout the full-scale war, Putin has shown an inability to admit failure, instead continuing to raise the stakes. To explain why the declared mobilization is unlikely to bring the desired results to the Kremlin, Friedman reminds that the situation in which the Russian Federation found itself is the result not only of the extraordinary resilience of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the support of Ukraine by the West but also largely of Putinʼs decisions as commander-in-chief. Friedman singles out four of his main mistakes: refusing a diplomatic settlement after the first failure, misjudging the influence of Russian oil and gas on Western decisions, overstretching the front line and, ultimately, inadequate calculations of the resources needed for the invasion. Due to the lack of infantry and subsequent significant losses in all units, Russia was forced to look for recruits elsewhere and resort to bribery and coercion. The call for mobilization is an attempt to overcome the persistent shortage of personnel, but the hasty training and lack of winter equipment, together with the lack of adequate leadership, make this move ineffective. Currently, Putin is on the road to defeat, Friedman writes, ― and he deserves it.
The German publication Der Spiegel writes that the holding of "referendums" and the announcement of mobilization means that Putin has staked everything on the war in Ukraine. These measures mark the end of the narrative that the invasion of Ukraine is not a war, and that the campaignʼs goals can be achieved with little resources. It also signals that Putin has cut off the way out of this "destructive adventure," the publication writes. The leader of the Russian Federation behaves like a gambler who goes all-in only because he can no longer get out of the game. Spiegel spoke with several Russians ― both those who decided to leave the country because of the risk of conscription and those who have already received a summons. In a speech, Putin said that the mobilization would only apply to reservists, but in fact everyone is being called up one after the other. In addition, a number of punishments for violations committed during mobilization and "voluntary surrender" appeared in the Russian Criminal Code. These actions of the authorities increase the division in Russian society, however, according to experts, the military capabilities of the Russian army will not change significantly, at least until the middle of 2023. In a broad sense, mobilization also violates the tacit contract between the Kremlin and the people — "you donʼt get into politics, and we donʼt get into your personal life," the publication writes. The only question is what will win ― dissatisfaction with the mobilization or fear of the authorities.
The Washington Post published an article about the propaganda newspapers that the Russian Federation distributed in Izyum city. One of the cityʼs residents, who survived the occupation, kept copies of Russian newspapers for history. When the Russians captured the city, the occupiers cut off access to communications and the Internet, and to promote their narratives, they used classic media ― propaganda newspapers. Izyumskyi Telegraf, Krasnaya Zvezda and Kharkov Z used the language of the Second World War, writes WP. There, the Russian army was called "allies", and the Armed Forces of Ukraine ― "Nazis" and "fascists". In the April issue of Kharkov Z, it even compared the battle for Donbas with the Battle of Kursk in 1943. Another newspaper called on the locals, despite the constant shelling, to come out of their basements and help the Russians rebuild the city. In one of the issues, there was an announcement about enrolling children in a camp in the Russian Federation — next to the news about 47 bodies found in a house allegedly destroyed by the Ukrainian army. The publication also writes about other issues of newspapers and describes their content in detail. In the end, at least some of the locals found a way to use propaganda to their advantage, like kindling for fires.