July 19. Port of Chornomorsk.
The civilian merchant ship “Golden Leo”, flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau, leaves from here. Ukrainian corn is in the holds. The ship is heading for Romania, but an air raid warning begins a few kilometers from the coast. Russia attacks the “Golden Leo” with three cruise missiles. One of them hits the starboard side, and the ship catches fire. Hundreds of people watch on the Odesa beaches.
The search and rescue operation lasted all night. Eight crew members were rescued. Nine sailors from India and Syria and a Ukrainian marine pilot died. The damaged ship remained near Odesa for another week, and on July 26 it capsized and sank.
The destroyed civilian cargo ship “Golden Leo” after a Russian missile strike, July 19, 2026.
Russia is not blocking Ukrainian ports, as in 2022. But international ships refuse to enter Ukraine
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Russian military fleet has blocked Ukrainian Black Sea ports and sea routes to them. Sea exports have almost stopped. In July 2022, with the mediation of the UN and Turkey, Russia and Ukraine agreed on a grain agreement that provided for a humanitarian sea corridor.
It exported, in particular, Ukrainian grain from three ports in the Odesa region — Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne. Thanks to this agreement, commercial shipping has resumed.
In July 2023, Russia withdrew from the grain agreement and threatened to attack all civilian ships heading towards Ukrainian ports. Immediately after that, the Russians began to strike at port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine responded by striking at the Russian fleet and in August 2023 opened its own sea corridor along the coasts of NATO countries — Romania and Bulgaria. Russian ships could no longer physically block this route, and sea exports gradually resumed.
A grain terminal worker in Odesa, November 6, 2022. The Maltese-flagged bulk carrier Zante passes through the Bosphorus en route to Belgium. The vessel was carrying 47 270 tons of rapeseed loaded in Ukraine, November 2, 2022.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
In the summer of 2026, Russia changed tactics. It began systematically striking port terminals, railway infrastructure, and civilian ships entering or leaving Ukrainian ports with missiles and drones. From June to August, the Russians attacked more than 50 ships and killed almost 30 people.
As a result, some foreign shipowners refused to call at Ukrainian ports. In particular, “Maersk” suspended its service through Chornomorsk, and “Hapag-Lloyd” reported that it had temporarily stopped calling at Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdenny.
The Kernel terminal in the port of Chornomorsk, damaged by a UAV attack, June 5, 2026. On September 12, 2024, the Russians attacked the AYA ship, which was transporting grain from the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk to Egypt. In the photo, crew members are cleaning up the aftermath of the attack. Firefighters eliminate the consequences of the Russian attack on a civilian vessel under the Togolese flag in the port of the Odesa region, July 13, 2026.
пресслужба Kernel; Getty Images / «Babel'»
Formally, the ports of Greater Odesa are working, but there is no full-fledged shipping. Now only three or four ships enter and leave Ukrainian ports every day. This has already affected grain exports: in the first two weeks of August, it fell by 75 % compared to the same period last year.
All this is happening at the height of the harvest. Storage facilities have begun to fill up, domestic prices for grain and oilseeds have fallen by about 30 percent, and farmers are running out of money for fuel, salaries, and autumn sowing.
According to the Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky, without the resumption of sea exports, Ukraine may not export more than 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and the direct losses of the industry will reach $1.5–3 billion.
Ukraine has returned to land and Danube routes. But even if they are fully loaded, they will be able to transport only 50–55 % of the volumes that previously went through Black Sea ports. In addition, such logistics add about $45–50 to the cost of each ton.
The European Union is helping Ukraine export grain bypassing the Black Sea — one such route runs through Moldova
Back in May 2022, immediately after Russia blocked Ukrainian ports, the European Commission, together with Ukraine and Moldova, launched a network of bypass routes — “Solidarity Routes”. This is a network of rail, road and river routes through Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Moldova.
Over four years, Ukraine exported about 230 million tons of cargo via these routes, including grain, ore and steel, and also imported fuel and humanitarian aid. However, as of July 2026, only about 20 % of Ukrainian grain exports went via “Solidarity Routes”. The rest was by sea, because it is faster and cheaper.
On August 12, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Koretsky agreed with Prime Minister of Moldova Vasile Tofan on the transit of Ukrainian grain by rail through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanta.
Why Moldova?
- Firstly, it is one of the shortest land routes from Odesa region to Constanta.
- Secondly, according to the assessment of the national railway operator of Moldova CFM, its network is currently loaded only about 20 %, so it can accept additional cargo.
- Thirdly, transit cargo is transported in Ukrainian wagons — CFM reserves its own grain trucks for Moldovan producers and traders. However, even after the discount, the full tariff for Ukrainian cargo is about 35 % higher than for Moldovan cargo.
After the Russian attack, the Orlivka checkpoint on the border with Romania resumed operations on September 6.
«Babel'»
For Moldova, this is not just a gesture of goodwill. Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said that the country should not give up the opportunity to earn millions of euros from transit. President Maia Sandu confirmed that Chisinau is negotiating with Ukraine, Romania and the European Commission on how to ensure the transit of grain without harming its own farmers.
However, the agreement almost immediately provoked opposition from Moldovan farmers.
According to the Moldovan government, the transit of Ukrainian cargo could bring their railway several million euros. By the end of 2026, Moldova expects to pass about 600 000 tons through its territory. This is not the maximum throughput capacity of the route.
The former head of the Moldovan railway Oleh Tofilat estimates its potential at 4.5 million tons per year. But even this is less than what the ports of Greater Odesa previously handled in one month: 5–7 million tons of grain.
Moldovan farmers threaten protests over discount on Ukrainian grain transit
In August, Moldova halved the tariff for transporting Ukrainian cargo by rail through its territory to Romania. The discount is valid from August 10 until the end of the year. For Ukrainians, this means a cheaper route to the port of Constanta.
Back in early August, the Moldovan association "Farmersʼ Power" demanded that the government restore licensing for imports of wheat, corn, and sunflower from Ukraine to protect the domestic market from a price collapse. This was a separate demand: the upcoming transit agreement was not yet known at the time.
When Prime Ministers Koretsky and Tofan agreed on a discount on transit. Farmers learned about this not from their own government, but from a public statement by the Ukrainian Prime Minister.
Already on August 17, after a meeting with Vasyl Tofan, the executive director of "Farmersʼ Power" Alexander Slusar set a deadline for the government — if the authorities do not change anything by August 21, farmers will organize mass protests.
Newly appointed Prime Minister of Moldova Vasile Tofan at a meeting with representatives of the "Strength of Farmers" association, July 17, 2026.
Facebook/Asociația Forța Fermierilor
"We already had a situation in 2022-2023, when poorly organized transit of products from a neighboring country blocked domestic exports. Moldovan farmers had to sell products much cheaper than cost. We cannot allow our exports to be jeopardized due to logistical or customs obstacles," said Slusar.
Moldova already restricted grain imports. The government introduced licenses in October 2023 after an earlier wave of protests. By the end of 2025, it had issued only 25 permits for the import of wheat, corn, and sunflowers — some of which were for specialty varieties that Moldovans do not grow, such as popcorn corn and sunflowers for confectionery.
Moldova grows and exports the remaining varieties itself, and when it comes to sunflowers, it is generally considered one of the main suppliers to the region. That is why cheaper imports or transit of these crops from Ukraine are so frightening to local farmers — it is direct competition in their own market.
In early 2026, the previous licensing regime ceased to operate. On August 3, farmers demanded its return. And on August 26, the government supported a bill that would restore licensing for the import of grain and oilseeds by October 31.
If the parliament approves it, companies will again have to obtain permission to import such products into Moldova.
President Maia Sandu defended the transit agreement with Ukraine.
“If Ukraine cannot sell its products and does not have money for defense, we will have bigger problems than we have now,” she said on Radio Moldova.
The government has separated transit and import. Ukrainian grain can still travel through Moldova to Romania on preferential terms. And for grain that they want to sell on the Moldovan market, the government proposes to return licensing.
Moldovan Railways also assured that it does not give preference to Ukrainian cargo. CFM reserves its own grain carriers for Moldovan producers and traders, while transit cargo is transported in Ukrainian wagons.
If the applications concern the same route and the same border crossing, Moldovan companies receive preference.
There was a fight over Ukrainian grain in Romania too. But this time, it was over tracks, wagons, and space in the port
The last time Romanian farmers protested en masse against Ukrainian grain was in January 2024. Then they blocked border crossings with Ukraine for several weeks. There were no new street protests this summer, but the increase in Ukrainian transit has alarmed Romanian traders.
In January 2024, Romanian farmers and truckers began large-scale protests, blocking roads and customs crossings. Among the reasons was, in particular, competition from the transit of Ukrainian grain. In the photo: a demonstrator with a Romanian flag on the outskirts of Bucharest, January 21, 2024.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
To get Ukrainian grain to the port of Constanta, it is transported by rail through Moldova to the Romanian border. Ukrainian and Moldovan tracks are wider than European ones, so at the border the grain must be reloaded into Romanian wagons. Then it is transported through Romania to the port. There is a lack of free wagons and space at the terminals — this is precisely why the dispute arose.
Romanian traders claim that some of the transport capacity near the Siret border crossing and in the northeast of the country has already been reserved for Ukrainian grain. This could leave Romanian exporters short of wagons for their own harvest and risk not fulfilling contracts. It is possible to transport grain by truck, but it is about twice as expensive as by rail.
However, the Romanian company “Unicom Tranzit” describes the situation differently. At an online meeting with “Ukrzaliznytsia” and carriers on August 19, its representative said that there are no free European-gauge wagons for Ukrainian products, because almost all of them transport Romanian grain.
In the port of Constanta, terminals also first accept Romanian trains, and only then Ukrainian ones.
A freight train made up of European hopper cars that transport, among other things, grain. Since Ukrainian railways have a wider gauge, while European ones have a standard gauge, grain is reloaded or wagons are changed at borders or land terminals, after which such trains travel through European territory. The process of transshipment and transportation of grain cargo at the railway terminal.
INTERFRACHT; LTG Cargo Ukraine
Due to the lack of wagons and the overloaded port, trains wait for acceptance from two to three to seven days. And one wagon spends up to ten days on the way from Vadul-Siret to Constanta and back.
There is no confirmation that Ukrainian grain has priority on the entire route. It is clear the other thing — there are not enough wagons, Constanta is overloaded, and the throughput capacity of the route is not enough for either Ukrainian or Romanian exporters.
Shallowing of the Danube further complicated the export of Ukrainian grain
Another backup route remains the Danube ports of Izmail and Reni. After the start of the full-scale war, they significantly increased their transshipment: grain is brought there by rail and trucks, and then transported by barges to Romanian ports or to places of transshipment onto sea vessels.
This summer, the problem has been the river itself. A prolonged drought has caused the water level in the Danube in Romania to drop to its lowest level since 1996. Barges cannot take as much cargo as usual, so some of the grain has to be left on the shore and the same volume has to be transported in several trips. This takes longer and is more expensive.
In late August, a queue of about 80 vessels gathered at the entrance to the Sulina Canal, the main deep-water route to Izmail and Reni from the Black Sea.
Low water levels in the Danube near Ruse, Bulgaria, August 21, 2026. The shallowing of the river has exposed prehistoric remains, including fragments of a mammoth jaw.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
The work of Ukrainian ports is also hampered by air strikes. In August alone, they lasted a total of 238 hours in the Odesa region. Sometimes, due to the danger, railway workers could not unload a single grain truck throughout the day. Russia also continues to strike at the Danube infrastructure.
On the night of August 13, Russian drones attacked Izmail and Reni. Port infrastructure was damaged in Izmail, and a fire broke out.
On September 1, export facilities in the Odesa region and the Orlivka automobile and ferry crossing point on the border with Romania were hit. Its work was temporarily stopped.
Thus, Russia also affected the automobile branch of alternative logistics.
On the night of September 1, Russian UAVs attacked the international crossing point for the Orlivka ferry service on the Ukrainian-Romanian border.
Одеська обласна прокуратура
Moldova, the Romanian railway, and the Danube help Ukraine export some of its grain, but none of these routes can fully replace the ports of Greater Odesa. Their capacity is smaller, logistics are more expensive, and their operation depends on the condition of the tracks, the availability of wagons, water levels, and Russian attacks.
A spokeswoman for the European Commission told Babel that the EC, together with Ukraine and neighboring countries, is looking for ways to increase the capacity of the Solidarity Routes and transport more cargo. The European Commission considers the Danube corridor to be the most promising alternative for Ukrainian exports.
"We also continue to monitor the progress of the harvest in Ukraine and whether there will be enough storage capacity in the coming months, how export logistics and ʼSolidarity Pathsʼ will work," she added.
Turkey has already prepared a plan for the safe passage of grain through the Black Sea and is discussing it with Ukraine and Russia. Ankara hopes to negotiate a new agreement similar to the 2022 grain agreement. However, Moscow is so far refusing, and the Russian Foreign Ministry says it sees no basis for an agreement.
This publication was produced as part of the “Seizing Synergies” project, implemented by n-ost and supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of BMZ.