Everyone is fooled by the events in the Middle East: the “stable genius” bombed Iran, threatened it with nuclear war, and when he achieved nothing, he blamed the problem on others (as always). China won (as always)

"Tonight, an entire civilization will perish... Or not": a week ago, on April 7, Donald Trump first scared the world with a nuclear war, and then declared a truce

Earlier last week, Donald Trump issued another ultimatum to Iran: if the country does not open the Strait of Hormuz by the evening of April 7, the United States will destroy all the countryʼs power plants and bridges.

Later, he also threatened to "destroy an entire civilization". With less than 90 minutes left before the deadline, the US president wrote on Truth Social that Iran and the US had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. During this time, the countries are to agree on a 10-point peace plan that Iran had previously transmitted through Pakistan. Israel has also agreed to a ceasefire.

Pakistan became the mediator of the negotiations — and not by chance. It maintains ties with both Washington and Tehran, shares a border with Iran and is allied with the Persian Gulf countries. Islamabad has been conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations since the first days of the war, passing on proposals between the parties.

In addition, the commander of the Pakistani army Asim Munir has close ties with Trump. He calls him “his favorite field marshal”. Munir also knows the leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as he headed Pakistani military intelligence a decade ago.

The official terms of the truce are that Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping for two weeks (although ships will need to coordinate with Iranian forces).

In addition, tankers that want to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must pay Iran a dollar for each barrel of oil in bitcoin. Oil markets reacted to the truce instantly: Brent crude futures fell from $108 to $89 (almost $20 in a few hours). This is the biggest one-day drop since the war began.

However, the truce was broken by both sides almost immediately — on the afternoon of April 8. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, and oil prices went up.

Iran failed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz because it lost track of the sea mines it had placed there.

In response to the ceasefire, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, but “subject to technical limitations”. Presumably, Tehran cannot guarantee safe passage. It has lost track of the sea mines it placed in the strait immediately after the war began.

According to American intelligence, Iran mined the strait in a hurry and did not record the coordinates. Some of the mines began to drift under the influence of currents. Removing sea mines, like land mines, is much more difficult than installing them.

Neither Iran nor even the United States, which rely on a limited number of coastal ships, can instantly clear such an area of water. This was also confirmed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which published a map of an alternative route for ships.

On April 11, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that two of its ships had “passed” through the Strait of Hormuz to clear it of Iranian mines. But Iran quickly denied this claim. Since the parties agreed to a ceasefire, only about 30 ships have been able to pass through the strait.

The first round of talks failed. Trump said that if a deal doesnʼt happen, Vice President J.D. Vance will be to blame.

Negotiations between the US and Iran began on April 11 in Islamabad. Donald Trump appointed Vice President J.D. Vance as the chief negotiator. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and the presidentʼs son-in-law Jared Kushner also arrived for the talks.

American reporters believe that the president himself has distanced himself from the war because he realized that it is lowering his approval ratings. Now he is satisfied that Vance is responsible for the result, and even jokes: "If the deal doesnʼt happen, Iʼll blame J.D. Vance."

Iran sent 71 people, including negotiators, experts, media representatives and security officials. Representatives from the United States and Iran have not met in person at such a high level since the 1979 revolution.

The negotiations lasted almost 21 hours, but the sides were unable to stop the war. The Americans said that Iran did not want to give up its nuclear program. And the Iranian news agency Tasnim wrote that the agreement was not concluded due to "excessive claims and ambitions of the United States".

The US Vice President J.D. Vance (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, April 11, 2026.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif during talks in Islamabad, April 11, 2026.

Getty Images / «Babel'»

A few hours after the talks in Islamabad ended, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US Navy had blocked the Strait of Hormuz: no ship will be able to pass through it until the US and Iran agree on complete freedom of passage for all.

The US Navy will block all ships heading to or leaving Iranian ports. At the same time, the US will not impede the movement of tankers and ships heading to ports of other countries in the region.

Despite the US blockade, at least two sanctioned tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz via an alternative route. One of them is the Rich Starry tanker, which is bound for China. According to monitoring services, this is the first vessel that was able to pass through the strait and leave the Persian Gulf since the blockade began.

The tanker and its owner are under US sanctions for cooperation with Iran. The Rich Starry was carrying almost 250 000 barrels of methanol, loaded in the United Arab Emirates. The crew and management are Chinese.

China plays a key role in the war: it buys Iranian oil, blocks UN resolutions together with Russia, and prepares new arms shipments for Tehran

China has publicly condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. However, when the UN Security Council voted for a resolution on Iranian attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, Beijing abstained. It also, along with Russia, blocked a Bahraini proposal on the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Why does Beijing want this?

First of all, China is Iran’s largest trading partner and the main buyer of Iranian oil. Last year alone, China imported 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day — 12% of total oil imports. Tankers carrying this oil are marked as Malaysian, Indonesian, Iraqi, Omani, or Emirati.

The scheme looks like this: Iran ships oil in “dark” tankers without transponders. Iranian oil is paid for in yuan through the Chinese interbank payment system CIPS — to avoid the Western SWIFT system. Iran then buys the Chinese goods it needs for yuan. The foundation of this relationship is a 25-year agreement that the countries signed on March 27, 2021.

According to it, China will invest $400 billion in the Iranian economy, and in exchange, Iran will steadily supply oil at significantly reduced prices. The agreement also stipulates that the countries will conduct military exercises and exchange intelligence.

After the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28, China not only continued to buy Iranian oil, but also allowed Iranian ships to load chemical precursors for missiles at Chinese ports.

And on April 11, the day before the talks in Islamabad collapsed, US intelligence reported that China was preparing to transfer man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS) to Iran, including through third countries to hide their true origin. However, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington denied this claim.

It was presumably Beijing that convinced Iran to accept the Pakistani ceasefire on April 7.