Putin changes Russiaʼs constitution to stay in power and sets course on Ukraine
I arrived in Moscow on the evening of January 15, 2020. My wife and I had just stepped off the plane when I heard the first news. Dmitry Medvedev had been fired. In his place was Mikhail Mishustin, a tax technocrat few knew.
Within minutes, I learned that Putin was launching a constitutional reform that would allow him to run again in the 2024 presidential election.
To prevent the reform from looking like a power grab, the Kremlin created a simple but well-thought-out plan. First, they had to make changes to the legislation. Then, they had to add social bonuses: salary increases, guarantees, payments.
On paper, it looked like caring for the people. In reality, it was a way to sell society on the zeroing of presidential terms. The Duma voted for the reform on January 20 — in the first reading.
After the second reading at the Duma meeting, deputy Valentina Tereshkova proposed allowing Putin to run again. He played the role of a person who was “taken by surprise” by the offer, but of course, he accepted it.
The MP Valentina Tereshkova speaks at the second session of the Duma, March 10, 2020.
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In the first days of my work, I understood that Russia is preparing to act more confidently than ever. It will look for weaknesses in Europe and the United States. It will advance its interests in Africa and Syria. But the main “crisis point” will remain Ukraine.
For Putin, this is not a question of foreign policy. It is a question of history, identity, “family heritage”. He wants to go down in history as the one who “returned” Russia its past.
The reform gave him the opportunity to think not about another term, but about his own era. Russia accused Ukraine without pause and without hesitation. This line did not change for a day or a tone in contacts with our Russian interlocutors.
Russia used the pandemic as an excuse to increase propaganda and spy on NATO bases in Europe
The pandemic was a dress rehearsal for the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. The rhetoric was familiar: “the rotten West”, “helpless Europe”, “confused America”. The EU remained a favorite target for Moscow: the initial difficulties of the European response to COVID were widely covered in the media.
I heard Russian officials mock French laboratories and companies. Articles praised Moscow, where “life goes on as normal”, and mocked Paris, which was in lockdown. Even some French people living in Russia picked up on this narrative.
In parallel, Russia sent “humanitarian missions” to Europe. For example, to Serbia or Italy. After a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Giuseppe Conte, the head of the Italian Council of Ministers, a group of one hundred Russian soldiers quickly arrived in Rome in March.
Then a convoy with military doctors, medical assistance and disinfectants set off for Bergamo and Brescia. This operation called “From Russia with Love” was widely covered in the international press and well-directed by Russian media. According to the Italian press, residents received €200 for thanking Russia for its help in a video.
Nurses prepare to administer the "Sputnik V" vaccine to elderly people at a public hospital in San Marino, Italy, April 8, 2021. Russian soldiers prepare to sanitize a nursing home in Bergamo, April 11, 2020.
Western media considered this mission to be an intelligence mission. The Russian military took care of nursing homes located close to American or NATO military bases. In addition, the medical teams included members of GRU.
I do not know whether the intelligence aspect was proven. In any case, such a demonstration made an impression in a country that is a member of the EU and NATO.
Moscow seeks new allies and postpones peace talks with Ukraine
The Russian economy was weakened by the pandemic, and the Kremlin feared overreliance on China. So it began to look for other allies. I saw Moscow turning to Africa, India, Brazil, Argentina — countries it saw as future partners in a new global confrontation.
Russia was to become an “intermediate power” balancing the Chinese, American and, to a lesser extent, European poles. This is where the myth of “Sputnik V” as a “vaccine for the whole world” was born.
It was reported back in May, when the vaccine failed all the tests. “Sputnik V” was offered to dozens of countries directly, bypassing the WHO and international programs.
The pandemic paralyzed negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. Back in February 2020, new figures emerged — the chief negotiator on the Russian side Vladislav Surkov was replaced by Dmitry Kozak. On the Ukrainian side — Andriy Yermak was appointed.
They knew each other and had a desire to move forward. In April, a prisoner exchange took place. This could have been the beginning of a gradual process. But due to the health crisis, all meetings were postponed.
This sequence of events had a fatal logic that led to war. It was fatal not because the negotiators changed. The fatality lay in the combination of isolation, propaganda, and the Kremlin’s belief that the world was weak and self-absorbed. This shaped Moscow’s decisions in 2021-2022.
The participants of the “Normandy Four” met in Paris on January 26, 2022. In the photo (from left to right): the advisor to German Chancellor Jens Plettner, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, the advisor to the head of the Kremlin Dmitry Kozak, and the advisor to the President of France Emmanuel Bon.
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A court in Rostov-on-Don accidentally published evidence of the presence of the Russian army in the Donetsk region. Diplomats managed to find this document in the archive
My interlocutors in the Russian Foreign Ministry regularly reminded me that the war began in 2014, after a “coup” in Kyiv that brought a “Nazi junta” to power, emphasizing that Russia had nothing to do with this internal conflict.
However, information published on December 21, 2021, proved that Russia had military bases in the Donetsk region and was conducting military operations there.
A court in Rostov-on-Don convicted a supplier of food to Russian soldiers stationed in separatist regions of Ukraine. He allegedly paid bribes to avoid administrative sanctions for non-compliance with sanitary standards and to keep his contract.
After independent media learned about it, the judgment was removed from the courtʼs website, but [diplomats] found it in the archive.
The storming of the Capitol, the withdrawal of troops from Kabul, Joe Bidenʼs summit and the debate in the European Council convinced Putin to act
A series of events in 2021 convinced Putin that the time had come to act. Firstly, the storming of the Capitol on January 6 seemed to signal the collapse of America’s political system. Secondly, the pathetic withdrawal of troops from Kabul in August cast doubt on the reliability of the United States and NATO.
The Democracy Summit on December 9-10, initiated by Joe Biden, also failed. He invited more than 100 countries to discuss supporting and defending democracy, fighting corruption, and protecting human rights.
The main thing for the Kremlin was not the content of the summit, but the fact that he did not invite Russia and China. Biden deliberately positioned the event as a gathering of the “democratic world” against authoritarian regimes.
Moscow perceived this as a diplomatic demarche and another sign of the weakness of American foreign policy.
Joe Bidenʼs Virtual Summit for Democracy, December 9, 2021.
The EU also proved powerless. The debate in the European Council on 24 and 25 June concerned the initiative of Germany and France (Merkel and Macron) to resume direct dialogue with Vladimir Putin at the highest level — to invite him to an EU summit.
Angela Merkel, who was preparing to leave power, sought to use the last chance for dialogue, believing that Putin needed to be talked to. The Baltic countries and Poland opposed it.
Putin saw that even the key players — Germany and France — could not impose their will on the smaller members of the EU.
After meeting with Putin in February 2022, Emmanuel Macron realized that an invasion was inevitable
On February 7, 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron met with Putin in the Kremlin, followed by a face-to-face dinner and then a press conference. I was with the minister and the delegation in an isolated adjacent room, so I did not hear the conversation, except for a few words of greeting.
Vladimir Putin was locked in his logic of confrontation and did not give in to any arguments. The press conference was also indicative. Macron expressed a desire to establish contact and dialogue.
The Russian leader repeated his usual criticism: the need to adjust NATOʼs expansionism; the desire to return to the situation of 1997; demonstrating with numerous examples (Serbia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) that the NATO bloc is neither peaceful nor defensive.
Macron said that a new order of security and stability in Europe should be developed on the basis of the Paris Charter and that Russia is obliged to adhere to it. Vladimir Putin did not make concessions.
After the meeting, our small delegation took a walk with Macron at around 2 AM. We all came to the same conclusion: Putin had changed, he was more hardened. I recalled the phenomenon of self-hypnosis of Soviet leaders, which was observed by the American Secretary of State George Kennan.
It seemed obvious to me that Putin had gone too far to stop. He wanted not just to stop Ukraine on its European path, but to undermine its sovereignty.
French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow, February 7, 2022.
A Russian banker close to Putin spoke about his motives in the war with Ukraine
I recall an interesting conversation that took place in April 2022 at the home of mutual friends with a leading banker very close to the government. His words summed up Russia’s position at the time well — the Donetsk issue is secondary compared to relations with the United States.
The resolution of the crisis will ultimately take place between Washington and Moscow. If Putin feels cornered, there will be World War III.