According to expertsʼ estimates, the "shadow fleet" that helps the Russians transport sanctioned oil consists of about 600 vessels, which is about 10% of the worldʼs number of large tankers.
CNN writes about it.
Now new players have appeared on the market. Even industry experts often do not know who exactly are the operators and owners of most of the ships that transport oil from the Russian Federation. However, it is known that in some cases shell companies operate in Dubai or Hong Kong. Sometimes ships are bought from Europeans or used old ships that would have been scrapped.
"There’s the fleet that is not doing any Russian business, and then there’s the fleet that’s almost exclusively doing Russian business," said Richard Matthews, head of research at EA Gibson. There are only a few ships that do "bit of both," he said.
As Europe moves away from Russian fuel, China increased its imports of Russian oil to an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2022, up 19% from 2021, according to the International Energy Agency. India, in turn, increased its purchases by 800% — to an average of 900,000 barrels per day.
Ships are needed to fulfill these orders. The Russian fleet does not have enough ships, so the Russians have to use the services of the "shadow fleet".
Shipping analyst Matthew Wright divides vessels carrying Russian oil into two categories: "grey ships" and "dark ships." "Grey ships" are those purchased in Europe by buyers from the Middle East and Asia after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Previously, they were not active in the tanker market.
Instead, "dark ships" have long been helping to circumvent Western sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Recently, they also started transporting Russian oil.
“The dark fleet that has been around carrying Venezuelan and Iranian oil globally is something we all expected to grow, and it has,” said Janiv Shah, senior analyst at Rystad Energy consulting company.
It is becoming more and more difficult to transport Russian oil over long distances. According to expertsʼ estimates, Russia currently needs four times more crude oil transportation capacity than it did before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the "shadow fleet" for transportation of sanctioned fuel is growing by 25-35 vessels every month.
- The European Union embargo on the supply of Russian oil came into effect on December 5, 2022, and on petroleum products on February 5, 2023.
- An exception was made in the EU for Bulgaria and Croatia. Until the end of 2023, they can continue to purchase some oil products. Also, deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline were not sanctioned. The Czech Republic also received the right to buy Russian diesel.
- The marginal price of discounted Russian oil products (for example, fuel oil) from February 5 is $45 per barrel, and for premium products (for example, diesel fuel) — $100. These are the maximum prices at which oil products from the Russian Federation can be transported by sea to third countries. A transition period of 55 days is provided for vessels with Russian petroleum products that were purchased and loaded before February 5 and unloaded before April 1.