The owner of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin is preparing the groundwork to explain the reason for the defeat of his troops at Bakhmut. This conclusion is made by Business Insider, based on the recent statements of the mercenary leader. For example, on the eve of the new year, Prigozhin actively criticized the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense for insufficient supplies of ammunition and equipment to the "Wagnerians" and, in general, for not understanding what was really happening at the front. The publication suggests that this is how he hoped to justify the futile half-year attempts to capture Bakhmut. Despite the huge number of victims and constant attacks, the long campaign gave almost no results, even the capture of the neighboring Soledar is unlikely to help the Russians achieve at least something in this direction. So far, everything looks like a failure for Prigozhin, and "the stars in the political sky in Russia fade quickly if they are unable to meet the needs of their main boss ― Putin," writes the media. Whether the political star of the main "Wagnerian" fades - Business Insider expects to see in the near future.
Ukrainian intelligence, on the other hand, is sure that Prigozhin is gradually being relegated to the shadows. This, among other things, was told in an interview with CNN by the deputy head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Valery Skibitsky. Russian propagandists are already talking about the battles in Bakhmut as the action of several different divisions of the occupiers, where Wagnerʼs PMC was only one among others. Prigozhinʼs ally in the official Russian army, Sergei Surovikin, was demoted. Perhaps the role of the "Wagnerians" as widely advertised cannon fodder can be considered exhausted, at least for a certain time. Also in the interview, Skibitskyi spoke about the need of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for long-range precision projectiles. HIMARS helped in the autumn counteroffensives, and now the goals and tactics of the Russians have changed. They managed to partially adapt to the new conditions, and now they place the main ammunition depots and military bases at a distance of 80 to 120 kilometers from the front line, sometimes deep into Russian territory. Itʼs logistically easier for the Russians to supply their army, for example, to Zaporizhzhia region and the Crimea than to the same right bank of the Kherson region. Long-range artillery should change this balance. This especially applies to the prospect of reconquering Crimea and cutting off the supply of the southern group of occupation troops. With the new shells, key Russian strongholds in this direction would quickly be in the danger zone.
The influential Washington publication The Hill also writes that the recapture of Crimea depends primarily on the readiness of the United States to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. With ATACMS missiles or Gray Eagle attack drones, Ukraine could successfully attack the occupiersʼ bases in Sevastopol or the logistics hub in Dzhankoy. The tanks provided by the West will, of course, increase the danger for Russian troops on the peninsula, but they are not the key for now. Putinʼs success as the president of Russia directly depends on whether he will control Crimea, so Ukraineʼs allies, and in particular the United States, have long delayed providing Ukraine with weapons that could pose a threat to the Russian army in Crimea, the publication writes. However, now the White House is leaning towards the fact that the Crimea card can be successfully played in potential peace negotiations with the Kremlin. He said that if Ukraine has enough means to win back the peninsula, it will significantly improve its negotiating position. However, so far sources in the American army refuse to say whether the United States allows the use of ammunition provided by Washington to attack targets in Crimea.