The "partial mobilization" of the Russians turned out to be not as unsuccessful as it was written about in the world ― and Putin is improving the mechanism for its next waves. Maksim Samorukov, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes about this in Foreign Policy. His arguments that the mobilization had an effect are as follows: the Russians stopped the rapid advance of the Ukrainians in the north of Luhansk region and are pressing on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions ― primarily thanks to the mobilized. At the same time, the political mobilization campaign did not harm the Kremlin too much: when Putin announced the end of the mobilization wave, the authoritiesʼ ratings returned almost to the level of the summer of 2022. The protest of the Russians was not caused by the fact of mobilization itself, and most of them have no complaints about the fact of the war, writes Samorukov. They were outraged by the fact that the mobilization turned out to be chaotic, and the new arrivals at the front did not have enough clothes, food, and weapons. When the draft ended, the atomized Russian society breathed a sigh of relief ― they say, this time it did not affect us. For the future, Moscow took into account the miscalculations of the first wave of mobilization: quite effective Russian technocrats, in particular, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, were engaged in securing provision for the front. The biggest supply problems have been solved, at least for now. The conscription system is also being changed ― the data is digitized and integrated with other systems in order to more quickly determine who should be taken to the front, and who should be left alone due to status, income or reputation. "Putin hinted at who he would rather see on the front line, saying that it is better to die in battle than from vodka and drugs. Accordingly, the next rounds of mobilization will concern those who are not too economically active and are rather ballast for the state," writes Samorukov. And those who do not want to go to war at all, can avoid it ― go abroad, enter a university or get a job in a company that has "protection" for its employees. In the end, the war will affect the least protected and poor Russians, as well as oppositionists ― because draft can also be used as a tool of repression. Instead, most Russians will be able to continue watching the war on television, rejoicing in propaganda lies. The transition to a digital draft is planned for April 2024. However, Sukhorukov believes, the Kremlinʼs priorities will not change until then ― Ukraine, as before, will remain the number one target.
The fate of the next stages of the war will depend on who will have more shells and deliver them to the front line faster, writes Bloomberg. The Kremlin is especially worried about this, says the correspondent of the media Mark Champion, referring to three unnamed high-ranking Russian officials. Putin set the main goal of the winter to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine from liberating more territories ― thatʼs why he is plugging the holes in the north of Luhansk region with hastily dressed and barely trained mobilized troops. But the Russiansʼ weapons logistics are far from ideal, and if Moscow does not solve this problem in the near future, the Ukrainian offensive will intensify again. Ukraine also needs more artillery installations and shells, as Volodymyr Zelensky often emphasizes to Western partners. There is a particular problem with projectiles for tanks, since there are not enough ammunition production lines for Soviet tank models. Hence the active requests to the allies to provide Ukraine with modern Western tanks, for which many enterprises in NATO are working on shells. However, if to look at the situation more broadly, Russia is still exhausted and losing. Although Russian defense plants are operating at maximum capacity, the Kremlin is using up high-tech projectiles too quickly, the supply of which cannot be quickly replenished, and the effect of using these projectiles is minimal. Therefore, new Ukrainian counterattacks cannot be avoided in the future, said a Russian military expert who asked to remain anonymous, as criticizing the Russian army in Russia is a criminal offense.