Danish investment bank Saxo Bank has shown its annual "shock predictions" for 2023. They emphasize that next year the world will move from a peaceful to a military economy.
The press service of the bank writes about it.
According to bankers, deglobalization and the impossibility of returning to pre-pandemic low inflation will be the main topics in 2023.
“Gone are the days when low interest rates could foster dreams of a harmonious world built on renewable energy, equality and independent central banks. In 2023, the world economy will enter the regime of a war economy, in which sovereign economic interests and self-sufficiency will prevail over globalization,” Saxo Bank stated.
Every year, the bank publishes such "shock predictions" — unlikely events that can lead to a shock in the financial markets. Saxo Bank experts point out that these forecasts should be treated as an experiment with consideration of all possibilities, even if they are unrealistic.
1. "Manhattan Project" for energy.
Due to the ever-increasing global demand for energy, the worldʼs richest people will form a consortium and launch a research project on a scale the world has not seen since the Manhattan Project allowed the United States to create the first atomic bomb. Its purpose is to significantly increase the ability to generate energy for humanity and for conducting various researches.
2. Resignation of French President Emmanuel Macron.
The political situation in France and the rise in popularity of far-right Marine Le Pen after the 2022 elections will lead Macron to an impasse, forcing him to leave politics and resign.
3. Increase in the price of gold to $3 000.
The price of gold will skyrocket after markets and central banks realize the fallacy of the idea that inflation is temporary and high prices will persist for a long time.
4. Creation of EU armed forces.
Security risks in the region and the refusal of the United States to play the role of "world policeman" will force the European Union to create its own armed forces, which will bring the unity of the region to a new level.
5. Prohibition of meat.
One of the worldʼs countries, striving to become a world leader in reducing harmful emissions, will not just introduce a high tax on meat, but also completely ban its production.
6. Referendum on canceling Brexit.
Due to the recession, a political crisis will begin in Great Britain, which will end with a vote to review the decision to leave the European Union.
7. Large-scale state control over prices.
Policymakers will impose strict price controls to curb inflation, leading to a number of unintended consequences.
8. Withdrawal of the OPEC+ countries and China from the IMF with India.
Countries that do not consider the United States an ally, due to sanctions against Russia, will decide to withdraw from the International Monetary Fund and create a new reserve asset instead of the dollar.
9. Pegging the exchange rate of the yen to the dollar.
Because of the problems faced by the yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan will try to peg its exchange rate to the dollar and begin a reset of the entire financial system.
10. Prohibition of offshore.
Members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development will decide to bring money from tax havens back into their economies by completely banning them.