Germanyʼs Der Spiegel published an interview with intelligence expert Greg Austin about how the West is helping Ukraine with intelligence. Here are the main points of the conversation:
- the US and other allies provide intelligence to Ukraine through a little-known center in Germany. The US, in particular, has access to unique data from satellites;
- ammunition depots can probably be identified through satellite imagery, but information about the location of command centers appears to be provided by informants on the ground;
- It is not known whether the United States and other allies provide Ukraine with information about Russiaʼs plans, in particular, regarding the movement of troops;
- Britain is likely to provide Ukraine with analytical data on the weak points of the Russian front or supply lines;
- It can be assumed that British and American analysts also advise Ukraine on how to organize the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For example, they could recommend the use of more civilian transport, which allowed the armed forces to move faster and take advantage of the surprise effect of a front breakthrough.
The Wall Street Journal writes about the mobilization of the Crimean Tatars, which Russia organized to get rid of the potential danger from them in Crimea. The publication cites Crimean Tatars leader Mustafa Dzhemilev, who believes that Putin seeks to send young, healthy Crimean Tatar men to their deaths or force them to flee abroad. Dzhemilev also compares this mobilization with the ethnic cleansing of the 1980s. Summonses in Crimea are issued, including during prayers in mosques, and are also brought home to Crimean Tatars. According to testimonies on the spot, in the first hours of mobilization, hundreds of men fled to Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan: many have relatives there "thanks" to Stalinʼs deportation of the Crimean Tatars in 1944.
The Associated Press published a story about a joint investigation with the American public broadcaster PBS into how Russia sells stolen Ukrainian grain to finance the war in Ukraine. It is about volumes of grain worth at least $530 million, which Russia stole with the help of forged documents and a tangled network of contractors. The publication writes about the cargo ship Laodicea, which delivered ten thousand tons of grain to Lebanon in the summer, despite the call of Ukrainian diplomats to confiscate the cargo. The AP managed to gather evidence that proves the grain was stolen from Ukraine. In particular, the investigation cites a message from TASS, the Russian state news agency, which initially wrote that Ukrainian grain was being transported by trucks from Melitopol to Crimea, and then that additional shipments to the Middle East and Africa were planned. In addition, the AP examined numerous satellite images and video evidence. Convincing evidence is also the fact that, according to the documents, Laodicea was supposed to pick up the cargo in the port Kavkaz, which, according to the technical characteristics, is not suitable for a vessel of this class: the ship would simply run aground. The same applies to several other ships that allegedly carried Russian grain. AP managed to identify several companies that smuggle Ukrainian grain for Russia, and companies that bought this grain under the guise that, according to the documents, the cargo left the Kavkaz port. Among such buyers, presumably, is the government of Turkey ― smuggler ships transported their goods, in particular, to the docks of the Turkish state importer.
Politico writes about the additional damage that the mobilization will cause to the Russian economy. The announced conscription of 300,000 Russians has already led to the fact that 360,000 men left for Georgia and Kazakhstan alone. Entire sectors of the economy, from industrial plants to Internet providers, are losing personnel, and Russia has no plan to respond to this problem. The situation is worsened by the fact that, in addition to fugitives, mobilized men will also drop out of the labor market. Unlike countries such as Sweden and Finland, where each company can reserve critically needed employees so that they do not fall under the draft, Russia does not have such approaches, and mobilization is chaotic.