The German economy will lose more than €260 billion in added value by 2030 due to the Russian invasion and high energy prices.
This is stated in a study by the German Employment Research Institute (IAB), writes Reuters.
Experts estimate that Germanyʼs price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7% lower next year, and the number of employed people will decrease by about 240,000 workers.
It is expected that this level of employment in the country will remain until about 2026, but by 2030 the number of employees will increase by about 60 thousand people.
Germanyʼs hospitality industry will suffer the most, as consumer purchasing power is expected to decline sharply. Next, losses will be experienced by the chemical industry and metal production enterprises.
Analysts forecast that if energy prices, which have jumped 160% today, double again, Germanyʼs output in 2023 will fall by almost 4% compared to what it would have been without the war.
Gas issue
The EU and Russia are dependent on each other for gas. The EU — from purchases of Russian gas, and Russia — from its sale. The vast majority of Russian gas exports and gas pipeline systems are directed to Europe. So, if the EU refuses to buy Russian gas, Russia will have to look for other sales channels, and these are huge amounts of energy resources that may not be needed by anyone. In addition, the gas transportation system of the Russian Federation is not oriented towards this.
Currently, the European Union cannot completely abandon Russian gas. However, due to the importance of the European market for Russia, the EU may try to put forward its conditions regarding prices — in particular, introduce additional tariffs for Russia or set a price limit. In this case, Russia will be forced to either agree to these conditions, or completely refuse to sell Russian gas to Europe, which will significantly affect Russian revenues.