War on the Rocks has published another podcast with Ryan Evans, founder of the publication, and Michael Coffman, director of Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analysis, USA. Evans and Kofman briefly describe the current situation on the front and note that Ukraine is successfully using HIMARS to destroy ammunition supply chains from the Russian Federation. So far, says Kofan, Russia has been able to move forward only thanks to the superiority in artillery. With the new weapons of Ukraine, this advantage of the Russian Federation is losing its force. In previous episodes, Kofman spoke of the danger of a too hasty counterattack from Ukraine, and now he believes that a "window of opportunity" has opened. Presumably, the Russian Federation is preparing the annexation of the Kherson region in September, after which it can begin mobilization, as it did in the "LPR" and "DPR". In addition, the Russians should be exhausted after the battles for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, so it is good to go on the offensive before they recover their strength. It is also important for Ukraine to show that Western aid gives real results. If these results are not forthcoming, the Europeans may want to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. For a counteroffensive, Ukraine will have to consolidate significant forces in the defensive direction, and this is not so easy, given the considerable length of the front line and the need to rotate the most prepared combat units. And in general, offensive and combined operations are much more difficult than defensive ones, so poorly prepared units, such as Teroborona, will have a hard time. The interlocutors also touched on the topic of the grain export agreement. On the one hand, the Russians benefit from this agreement, Kofman says, because they want to sell their (and stolen in Ukraine) grain and fertilizers. On the other hand, the Russian Federation will probably continue to attack Ukrainian warehouses in order to scare away potential investors and reduce the amount of grain that Ukraine will be able to sell this season.
Sebastian Malaby, a senior researcher in international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote a column for The Washington Post in which he ponders how long the West can stand against the Russian Federation. According to Malabi, Russiaʼs critical resource in this war is not oil, nickel or gas, but the ability to endure a lot of suffering - much more than the West can withstand. Russia is adapting to sanctions, the new Lada Granta Classic 2022 car from the Russian auto industry will be released without airbags and a modern seat belt system - and support for Putin and his war is only growing. Hopes that the Russian president will be removed by the oligarchs or the military are fading, while the Kremlin is successfully using "counter-sanctions" that have already increased inflation and slowed economic growth in the EU and, to a lesser extent, in the US. While the Russians are patient, the inhabitants of Western democracies are dissatisfied, writes Malabi, which can shake the political will to support Ukraine in word and deed. To simplify the task, Malabi offers Europe to plan for the long term: in a year, the EU will get rid of energy dependence on Russia, and banks will contain inflation. But in a year, the Russian Federation, without access to Western spare parts and the reputation of a reliable supplier of gas, will continue to weaken. That is why the West must choose - to be brave and show its power or to surrender due to the dictatorʼs threats, summarizes Malabi.
Arguments in favor of the fact that Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine are presented by anthropologist Christina Hook in an essay on Foreign Affairs. Hook writes about the origin of the term "genocide", which was introduced by the Polish lawyer Raphael Lemkin during the Nuremberg trials. Lemkin called genocide a crime of crimes, because its goal is to take away the very right to exist from a whole group of people. Later, in its definition of this concept, the UN specified that the tools of genocide are not only murder, but also rape, deportation, and attempts to destroy language and culture. This is exactly what is happening in Ukraine today, and the Kremlin leadership has been talking about the alleged non-existence of Ukrainian identity for years. Among the motives of the Russian Federation, Hook notes the reluctance of the Russian Federation to exist alongside a sovereign state with a strong identity that contradicts the Russian autocracy. The author cites numerous examples of crimes committed by the Russian Federation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which fully fall under the definition of genocide. It is important that not only soldiers who directly kill Ukrainians are guilty of this crime, but also Russian officials, recruiters, advisers, diplomats and social services that facilitate deportation. The genocide was blessed by the Russian church, promoted by the state media and supported by silent spectators who did not try to stop this crime, Hook notes. It is important to start calling a spade a spade, the author believes, because direct accusations of genocide by the Russian Federation can help open the eyes of its African, Asian, and Middle Eastern allies. Governments should also follow the example of the UK and introduce sanctions against the masterminds of crime, not just the direct killers. After all, the support of Ukraine with weapons should be at the highest level, because genocide can be overcome only with a complete victory, summarizes Hook.