The Editorial Board of The Washington Post writes about the potential consequences of Putin failing his plan B too. As Russian troops have retreated from Kharkiv and concentrated on Luhansk oblast, the chances the Kremlin could accomplish its plans are becoming vague. The West aims to shorten the time of war, and therefore now might seem a good momentum for a negotiated cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. Yet, the risks of relaxing the pressure on Putin before he is defeated, and maybe not even then, are too high. According to Avril Haines, director of the US national intelligence, Putin is probably getting ready for a long war and is not giving up his wish to achieve his goals beyond Donbas. Thus, he would only use talks to pull time and probably count on the EU and US to weaken the sanctions in response to inflation and food shortage. The west has to keep its positions strong to make sure Putin’s plan won’t work.
Both democrats and republicans are eager to expand the U.S war crimes bill in response to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, writes The New York Times. The leaders of both parties plan to amend the 1996 war crimes law so it can be applied to cases committed abroad even when neither party is a US citizen. The bill aims to prevent war criminals from hiding in the country and sends a message that they will not be tolerated in the US. A similar law in other countries, like Germany, already implies universal jurisdiction. Back in 1996, this approach did not seem wise as it might have led to foreign relations issues, and now the draft bill suggests addressing this concern by requiring the attorney general to certify that the prosecution would serve “the public interest and necessary to secure substantial justice”.
Chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov wrote an op-ed on The Wall Street Journal where he claims that isolating Putin and responding to him with strength is the only way to make lasting progress. Kasparov believes Putin is a Russian problem and he should be removed by Russians, but the West has to stop helping him. “Every phone call that legitimizes his authority, every cubic meter of gas, and every barrel of oil imported from Russia is a lifeline to a dictatorship that is shaking for the first time” – writes Kasparov. Of course, it would have been better if this was realized earlier, when following the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 the West decided it was better to maintain economic ties with Russia rather than support Georgia. Later the Western leaders closed their eyes to the annexation of Crimea and even the Kremlinʼs interference in UK and US elections. Now is when defense support would not be enough for Ukraine, and Kasparov urges the Western leaders to help Ukraine counterattack and win, restoring the whole territory and strengthening sanctions despite the high cost.
Bloomberg reports that the current surplus on the Russian account is at its record despite the sanctions. As oil and gas export continues and the import decreases, the account surplus – the broadest measure of trade – is the highest since 1994. This and hardening state control over the national economy made Rubl the worldʼs best performer this year. The Bloomberg expert believes that the import collapse would allow Russia to keep its’ account in surplus; however, it will erode living standards and push up costs. If the EU imposes restrictions on coal and oil imports ― the surplus will not be there for long too.