The Economist writes that it is going to be hard for the Ukrainian economy to survive a long war following the suspension of all maritime export. At the same time, there are multiple reasons not to panic: the pre-war Ukrainian economy was growing at almost 7%, the prices for exports of grain, iron, and steel were good and the last yearʼs government deficit was less than 3% of GDP. Ukraine’s debt right before the war was under 50% of GDP, a number that most finance ministers can only dream of. Even after almost three months of the war, Ukraine is holding on pretty well economically. As many Ukrainian systems are digital, and internet is working even in the occupied territories, pensions and salaries are still being paid. Most businesses are still paying salaries, with payroll taxes being only 1% down. But it is not going to be easy, Ukrainian GDP will shrink by about 45% in 2022. Each month of war cost about a $5bn financial gap for Ukraine. While the Western allies are helping Ukraine financially, this is not sustainable. If the war lasts another three to four months, Ukraine will have to raise taxes and cut spending. Despite that Ukrainian farmers managed to put about 80% of regular seeds in the ground, the grains export will be a huge problem, as Russia is blocking the operation of Ukrainian ports.
A column on Foreign Policy offers one more way of supporting Ukraine to survive and revive the war and post-war times. As Ukraine is going to face a devastating economic impact of the Russian invasion, a good way to support Ukraine for international companies is issuying contracts to Ukrainian vendors. In particular, the outlet urges hiring companies and vendors in the technology industry, that has been rapidly growing in Ukraine before war. The outlet talked to several Ukrainian IT companies, who have applied different strategies to keep working, and those strategies worked: IT Ukraine Assosiation reports 77% of companies bringing in new clients during the war. For the first quarter of 2022, the industry gained over $2 bn in export earnings. Beyond the positive impact on Ukraine’s economy, the IT sphere is also helping with development of tools and efforts that contribute to defense and humanitarian needs. Both dimensions are crucial during this war, and a good way to help is to issue hire Ukrainians through a number of emerging platforms like UA Talents, Ease Work, Hire for Ukraine, EmployUkraine, and Imagine Ukraine.
The Poles are worried about the capacity of their shelters following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, writes The Wall Street Journal. Polish bomb shelters were not functional for the past thirty years, but now the Poles are asking their authorities to reopen and update the bunkers. While Warsaw is not necessarily taking measures to address potential Russian aggression against Poland, the locals are worried about chemical or conventional attacks. Beyond storing water and food, many poles question the bomb sheltersʼ accessibility and functioning. According to the 2017 report, Poland has about 40,000 shelters that can accommodate less than 3% of the total population, and most of the shelters don’t have functioning air-filtering systems. Another challenge is that many of the shelters are currently used as extra storage or even living spaces. Moreover, the cost of renovating a bunker is too high for most people.
The New York Times writes about the crucial importance of timely supply of heavy artillery to Ukraine during this second phase of war. The outlet qoutes military analyst who say that accuracy, quantity and the striking power of long-range weapons will be decisive for the fighitng outcomes. As of now, the front is left in stasis: Russia is attacking open terrains aiming to destroy Ukrainian positions and then sends armored vehicles, that are destroyed with Ukrainian short-range anit-armor weapons. Ukraine can’t proceed to, as it relies on smaller infanftry units with few armored vehicles. The Ukrainian advace would be possible when western long-range artillery arrives. Then, the infantry will be able to advance undeer the artillery umbrella. As of now, there is a number of small Ukrainian outposts, like the 17th Tank Regiment squeezed between two fields in a tree line, that could only aim to survive waiting for western support to arrive.