For the first time in recorded history, the number of people aged 65 and over in the world has exceeded the number of children under five. This trend is shifting the balance between people of working age and the elderly.
This is evidenced by data from a US census report conducted by Axios.
In 2023, more than 71% of the worldʼs population lived in countries where the fertility rate was at or below replacement level (about 2.1 births per woman).
For comparison: in 2013, the figure was 45%. According to the Census Bureau, the shift to the elderly has occurred much earlier than demographers predicted just a decade ago. The number of people aged 65 and older is expected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion in 2060.
However, low fertility is not just limited to rich countries. China and India also have fertility rates below replacement level (around 2.1 births per woman). These countries also include Bangladesh, Mexico and Vietnam.
Europe remains the oldest region in the world, according to the report. However, Census Bureau co-author Andrew Scott believes that the demographic shift could force society to rethink old age as an economic asset, rather than simply a cost.
- In Ukraine, 73 292 children were born in the first 6 months of 2026, while 259 853 people died. Thus, mortality is almost four times higher than birth rate. In 2024, Ukraine ranked first in the world in terms of mortality and at the same time last in the birth rate ranking.
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