Pakistanʼs Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said: there is credible intelligence that India wants to launch military action within the next 24-36 hours.
According to him, India will use the Pahalgam incident as a pretext. However, any aggression will be met with a decisive response. The minister stressed that India will bear full responsibility for "possible catastrophic consequences in the region".
The day before, on April 28, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif allegedly told Reuters that a military invasion by India was “imminent”. Islamabad is on high alert, but will only use its nuclear weapons if there is a “direct threat to our existence”.
Then, in another interview, he clarified that his statement should not be interpreted as a categorical prediction that war would begin within the next two or three days, reiterating that he had only said that "the coming days will be decisive".
The Defense Minister said that there was "absolutely no doubt" that the danger was approaching, but "I never said it was inevitable".
"If something is going to happen, it will happen within the next two to four days... otherwise the immediate danger will pass," Asif said.
The United States is in contact with the leadership of Pakistan and India and is urging the countries not to escalate the conflict. A State Department spokeswoman said on the evening of April 29 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio expects to hold talks with the foreign ministers of Pakistan and India "today or tomorrow".
Why did the conflict escalate?
A new round of conflict between the two nuclear-armed states began after gunmen killed 26 tourists near the resort town of Pahalgam in Kashmir. India called it a “terrorist attack” with “cross-border” links, accusing Pakistan of supporting the incident. Islamabad denies involvement in the attack. An unknown militant group, the “Kashmir Resistance”, claimed responsibility for the attack.
In response to the killings, New Delhi suspended a key water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, closed the only land border crossing between the countries, reduced the number of diplomatic staff, and canceled all visas issued to Pakistani citizens. Pakistan then canceled visas issued to Indian citizens, closed its airspace to all Indian-owned or operated airlines, and suspended all trade with India.
Pakistani authorities also warned that any Indian attempt to stop or redirect the flow of water would be considered an "act of war".
Experts interviewed by The New York Times say that India and Pakistan are now on the brink of a new armed conflict that could have “unforeseen consequences”. A similar attack in 2019 brought them to the brink of war, but they did not go that route then. Analysts say that now the escalation is on a larger scale.
What preceded
The Himalayan region, which is claimed in full by both India and Pakistan but only partially controlled by both countries, has been wracked by violence since 1989 due to an armed insurgency against Indian rule. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in that time, although the level of violence has declined in recent years.
In 2019, India revoked the special status of Kashmir, splitting it into two centrally administered territories — Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. The changes also allowed people from other regions to be granted residency, allowing them to work and buy land in the area.
The government of Jammu and Kashmir state, where Pahalgam is located, told the state parliament this month that nearly 84 000 non-resident Indian citizens have been granted residency permits in the region in the past two years. The move by India has further strained relations with Pakistan, which also claims the region as its territory. The dispute has led to hostility and armed conflict between the two nuclear-armed states.
Indian security officials say that some of the most large-scale militant attacks during the active phase of the insurgency have occurred during visits by high-ranking officials from abroad — likely to draw world attention to the situation in Kashmir.
The attack on Tuesday, April 22, came the day after the US Vice President J.D. Vance began a four-day, mostly private visit to India.
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