WSJ: Russia expands military bases near NATO border

Russia is actively expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, building a new army headquarters, modernizing barracks, arsenals, and railway lines. According to the Kremlinʼs plan, in the coming years the number of troops there will be significantly increased — from brigades of several thousand to divisions of 10 thousand soldiers, strengthening the presence along the borders with Finland, Estonia, and Latvia.

This is reported by The Wall Street Journal.

In the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 160 kilometers east of the Finnish border, military engineers are expanding army bases. The Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters there that will oversee tens of thousands of troops in the coming years.

The main increase in personnel is expected in the Leningrad region, which borders Estonia, Latvia and Finland. According to Western military and intelligence sources, small brigades are planned to be almost tripled, turning them into divisions of 10 000 soldiers.

“No matter how the Russians try to change tactics or operational approach, the main thing for them is numbers. In the end, it’s all about numbers,” said Major General Sami Nurmi, deputy chief of the Finnish defense staff.

As part of these plans, Russia is building new barracks, training grounds, modernizing arsenals, and railway infrastructure to accommodate more troops in and around Petrozavodsk.

In December, Russian state television showed about 100 soldiers marching through the center of Petrozavodsk, marking the re-establishment of a Soviet railway brigade that would lay new railway lines.

This involves the construction of new railway lines along the borders with Finland and Norway, as well as from St. Petersburg to the border with Estonia. In addition, existing railway lines in the region are being expanded.

Major Juha Kukkola, a professor at the National Defence University in Helsinki and an expert on the Russian army, noted that there are about a dozen places along the Russian-Finnish border where mechanized forces can be transported. He also stressed that the construction of new railway tracks or the repair of old ones should be a signal for increased attention.

According to Emil Kastehelmi of the Finnish think tank “Black Bird Group”, which studies satellite images of Russian military facilities, the new infrastructure includes warehouses and living quarters for the military.

In addition to housing more troops, the Russian Defense Ministry said it was renovating a 19th-century military hospital in St. Petersburg.

Plans to invade NATO

In February, Danish intelligence released a report warning that Russia could start a full-scale war in Europe within five years if it believes NATO is not strong enough. Western militaries also warn that a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine would allow the Russian army to rebuild even more quickly.

In response to the threats, some NATO countries are strengthening their borders: building trenches, installing anti-tank barriers, including pyramid-shaped structures known as “dragon’s teeth”. Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have already withdrawn from an international agreement that bans the use of anti-personnel mines.

Western officials point to a series of covert operations that Russia has allegedly carried out in Europe in recent years as evidence of Moscowʼs desire to destabilize the West and retaliate for its support for Ukraine. In particular, Russian military intelligence is suspected of trying to plant incendiary devices on DHL planes and of orchestrating an assassination attempt on the CEO of a major German arms manufacturer.

According to one European intelligence official, Russia may try to test NATOʼs cohesion by attacking a small member state of the Alliance, such as Estonia.

Russiaʼs ability to confront NATO depends largely on how quickly it can rebuild its armed forces after the war in Ukraine, which has depleted the Russian militaryʼs manpower but also given it experience in using precision-guided weapons.

“If you ask how quickly Russian forces could conduct a limited operation against the Baltic states, the answer is quite quickly,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

According to him, Baltic officials believe that the threat could become real two to three years after the end of the war. If we assess the risk of a large-scale war against NATO, the time frame could be seven to ten years, depending on the development of events.

This year, Russia is likely to launch the first stages of its plan during its annual strategic military exercises later this year. The maneuvers, named "West", are expected to focus on training troops in border regions bordering NATO countries.

Military experts in NATOʼs east predict that the exercises are designed to demonstrate Russian strength and deter Europe from escalating the conflict. Regardless of whether a ceasefire is reached, they believe the Kremlin wants Europe to take it seriously.

Trump has said that concerns that Russia has ambitions beyond Ukraine are exaggerated. Asked in February about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s warning that Russia could go to war with NATO if the United States reduced its support for the alliance, Trump denied that: “I don’t agree with that, not at all.”

However, military analysts in Russia view the activity along the Finnish border as part of the Kremlinʼs preparations for a possible conflict with NATO.

Russian officials are sending mixed signals, the WSJ reports. Late last year, at a meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry, Minister Andrei Belousov said that the military should be prepared for a conflict with NATO. On the same day, Putin noted that the West was causing anxiety among Russians, hinting at Russia’s readiness to attack, and also indicated that the current tension was the result of NATO’s actions.

Building up the army and manufacturing weapons

Russia is actively building up its military presence on NATOʼs eastern flank, and Putin has ordered the army to be increased to 1.5 million troops, a significant increase from the one million before the war in Ukraine began.

Russia has seen a significant increase in new recruits in recent months, thanks to generous one-time signing bonuses offered at both the federal and regional levels, which in some cases can reach around $20 000.

“These one-time payments have increased significantly, and they are now larger than what many people would have earned in an entire year under other circumstances,” said Iika Korhonen, director of the Institute for Emerging Economies at the Bank of Finland, which analyzes the Russian economy.

The US estimates that about 30 000 Russians are joining the military each month, up from 25 000 last summer. Some Eastern European intelligence officials believe the number could actually be as high as 40 000 recruits each month.

According to European intelligence estimates, the increase in the size of the army allows the Russian military to rotate units stationed in Ukraine more often, as well as to form new ones trained and deployed in Russia.

To help with recruitment, federal and regional governments have increased benefits for veterans and their families and are even inviting soldiers to participate in city councils and the Russian parliament.

This year, Russia has increased military spending to 6% of GDP, a significant increase from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the US spends 3.4% of its GDP on defense, while the EU average is 2.1%.

These costs have forced Russiaʼs defense industry to expand its capacity. Production lines are once again operating at full capacity, and factories are opening new production areas to meet growing needs.

Until 2021, Russia produced only about 40 T-90M tanks per year. Today, that number has increased to 300. According to the Finnish military, most of these tanks remain inside Russia and do not go to the front in Ukraine.

It is predicted that Russia will increase the production of artillery guns and ammunition by 20% in 2024. At the same time, the quality and volume of drone production has significantly improved.

The commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, noted that the Russian army is recovering faster than expected, and is now even larger than at the beginning of the war, despite significant losses.

Russia is adjusting its rearmament plans to accommodate the needs of new military units that will be deployed on the NATO border. These units will receive a significant amount of modern equipment. Meanwhile, most of the weapons arriving on the front lines in Ukraine are old or refurbished Soviet-era equipment.

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