Russia wants to create a Eurasian trading bloc that would compete with the spheres of economic influence of the United States, the European Union, and China.
The Financial Times writes about this, citing a report presented in April 2024 at a strategic session led by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Moscow’s goal is to restore its access to world trade by placing Russia at the center of a Eurasian trading bloc. The new “macroregion”, the Kremlin envisions, should survive Russia’s negotiations with the West over the future of Ukraine and help strengthen Moscow’s position on the world stage. This bloc should interact with countries in the Global South, providing them with access to raw materials, as well as financial and transport flows.
The authors of the document acknowledge that there are serious obstacles to the projectʼs implementation. In particular, Western sanctions pressure prevents Moscow from drawing former Soviet republics into its orbit and establishing economic ties with the Global South.
In addition, the West has successfully forced Central Asian countries to comply with sanctions using a “carrot and stick” approach. They are offered access to global markets, transport corridors and supply chains that bypass Russia. Moscow’s allies have also used sanctions to drive Russian businesses out of their jurisdictions, take control of import and export flows and move production out of Russia. The risks of violating sanctions have also allowed Central Asian countries to receive additional commissions from Russia.
The countries of Central Asia, the report authors believe, are taking advantage of the Kremlin’s “vulnerability” and seeking to “unite without Russia” in groups—for example, the Organization of Turkic States. Russian officials claim that the countries of the region have “rethought their collective history” and “changed their worldview”—promoting English as a second language instead of Russian, adopting Western educational standards, and sending elites to study in the West.
Russia will have to "play the long game" to keep Central Asian countries in its sphere of influence. And allied countries will have to "make decisions about their position on Russia," the report notes.
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