The New York Times newspaper for the first time published the text of the draft peace agreement developed in the spring of 2022 by the Ukrainian and Russian delegations.
According to the NYT, the stalling of the negotiations was largely influenced by the fact that Russia wanted to obtain the right to veto the supply of weapons to Ukraine from its partners in the event of a new attack.
The publication contains three documents: the draft agreement of April 15, which was handed over to Putin, the communique of March 28-30, and a translation of the draft agreement of March 17, which Kyiv handed over to its Western partners. The first page of the contract dated April 15 and the appendix with a list of military equipment to it coincide with the document that Putin showed in June 2023.
There are a lot of corrections and comments in the draft agreement dated March 17, which indicates serious disagreements between the parties in the vision of what the agreement should be. Kyiv wanted Moscow to agree to provide Ukraine with security guarantees from its allies, and the agreement also provided for the application of all norms to the territory of Ukraine recognized by the international community, i.e. including Crimea.
But Russia wanted the lifting of Ukrainian sanctions imposed since 2014 and wanted to oblige Kyiv to call on other countries to abandon their sanctions. Moscow also insisted that Kyiv recognize Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian. The draft agreement even provided for limiting the number of Ukrainian troops and the number of military equipment. Kyiv was ready for these restrictions, but sought an upward revision of the figures proposed by Moscow.
After the meeting in Istanbul in March 2022, Ukraine prepared a communiqué on the agreement that was potentially to be concluded. The document provided that the status of Crimea will be determined within 10-15 years after the agreement, and Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Putin will agree on the status of the other occupied territory at a personal meeting. Russia also wanted to include Belarus in the list of potential guarantor countries.
On April 15 of the same year, the draft agreement was handed over to Putin, it contained significantly fewer comments from the parties. The parties agreed that Ukraine will announce its neutral status, but this will not stand in the way of its accession to the EU. The parties also agreed that "Ukraine accepts the Russian occupation of Crimea, but does not recognize Russian sovereignty over it."
The parties remained at odds regarding the lifting of sanctions and the status of the Russian language. Kyiv refused to discuss these issues, referring to the fact that they did not appear in the earlier communique. In addition, the parties could not agree on the number of different weapons and the size of the Ukrainian army (Moscow wanted to limit it to 85,000 soldiers in the Armed Forces and 15,000 soldiers in the National Guard, while Ukraine wanted the army to have 250,000 soldiers). Russia also wanted to limit the range of Ukrainian weapons to 40 kilometers, and Ukraine to 280.
The clause on the protection of Ukraine in the event of a future attack became the biggest problem, the NYT writes. It stated that the guarantor countries: Great Britain, China, Russia, the USA and France should come to Ukraineʼs aid. After the Istanbul talks, Moscow began to insist that such assistance must be pre-agreed upon by all guarantors. This, the paper said, meant that Russia could invade again and then veto any aid to Ukraine.
After that, according to a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, Kyiv lost interest in negotiations.
According to the newspaperʼs sources, Putin was actively involved in the negotiations, he gave recommendations through Roman Abramovich and called his adviser Volodymyr Medinsky.
In November 2023, the leader of the Ukrainian negotiating team, David Arahamiya, stated that Ukraine refused to sign the treaty, in particular, because Kyiv considered the document a ruse that would allow Moscow to rebuild its army and attack Ukraine again.
- On March 1, 2024, The Wall Street Journal also published the terms of the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. For the most part, the points coincide in essence with what was published in the NYT.