The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts more than 35 million new cancer cases in 2050, a 77% increase over 2022.
The forecast reflects both the aging of the population and its growth, as well as changes in the impact on people of factors related to socio-economic development. The main factors that increase the incidence of cancer are obesity and the use of tobacco and alcohol. At the same time, air pollution remains a key environmental risk factor.
Countries with a high level of the Human Development Index (HDI), according to WHO expectations, will experience the greatest absolute increase in the incidence of cancer. Another 4.8 million new cases will be recorded there in 2050.
However, the proportional increase compared to current incidence rates will be most pronounced in low HDI countries (142% increase) and in middle HDI countries (99%). It is also predicted that by 2050 cancer mortality in these countries will almost double.
The head of cancer surveillance at the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Freddie Bray notes that the rise in cancer cases will affect countries with different HDI levels unevenly. Despite progress in early cancer detection and treatment, large disparities in treatment outcomes exist not only between high- and low-income regions of the world, but also within countries.
IARC has determined that in 2022, the most common types of cancer will be lung cancer, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer.
Lung cancer became the most common with 2.5 million new cases, accounting for 12.4% of the total number of new cases. Breast cancer in women is the second most common (2.3 million cases, 11.6%), followed by colorectal cancer (1.9 million cases, 9.6%), prostate cancer (1.5 million cases, 7.3%) and stomach cancer (970 000 cases, 4.9%). The data covers 185 countries and 36 types of cancer.