The cessation of Russian strikes on Ukraineʼs energy sector could be a step towards ending the war

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the cessation of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities and ships could open the way to negotiations on the end of the war.

The Financial Times (FT) writes about it.

"When it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia might be ready to end the war," Zelensky explained.

And he added that if Moscow and Kyiv agreed to stop attacks on each otherʼs energy infrastructures, it would be a significant step towards de-escalation.

"We saw during the first Peace Summit that a decision could be made on energy security. In other words: we do not attack their energy facilities, and they do not attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the hot phase of the war? I think so," the president emphasized.

According to him, Russiaʼs readiness for negotiations "primarily depends on the elections in the USA." He expects a "more positive reaction" from the American vote "not because there will be a new president, but because the US is now focused on the election," making any harsh statements a challenge.

At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky denied any discussions with the West about an agreement to exchange territories for peace, which also involves Ukraine joining NATO.

"Maybe some partners can think about it. But they donʼt report it directly through me, but through the media. In all discussions, we now raise the issue of security guarantees, the strongest of which is joining NATO," Zelensky said.

Attacks of the Russian Federation on the energy industry

Russia resumed massive attacks on Ukrainian energy this spring. Mass strikes on energy facilities in Ukraine are regular. Since March 22, the Russians have already destroyed more than 9 GW — half of the peak electricity consumption in winter.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported that this winter, a deficit in the energy system may lead to power outages from 4 to 18 hours a day.

Attacks on Russian refineries

This spring, Ukraine began to actively attack Russian refineries. In March, an oil refinery in the Russian city of Ryazan caught fire after a drone attack, drones attacked a refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region and an oil depot in Oryol, an oil refinery in the Krasnodar Territory. Meanwhile, the refinery of “Lukoil” in the Nizhny Novgorod region lost part of its capacity due to the attack, and the refinery in Sloviansk-on-Kuban partially stopped work.

At the end of March, a sharp decrease in gasoline production was recorded in Russia — by 7.4%, to 754.6 thousand tons. Politico wrote that drone attacks on Russian oil refineries led to the fact that one of the worldʼs largest oil powers ran out of gasoline.

The Victory Plan

On October 16, President Zelensky publicly presented the victory plan in detail for the first time, speaking before Ukrainian deputies in the Verkhovna Rada. It contains five points. The first four are designed for implementation during the war, and the last — after the war.

• Invitation to NATO even before the end of the war. Zelensky claims that this will be a "testament of determination" and will show how the partners see Ukraine in the "security architecture".
• Strengthening the defense. This point provides for the continuation of the operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Russia and the lifting of restrictions on strikes deep into the Russian Federation, the joint repulsion of Russian air attacks with friendly neighbouring countries and access to intelligence partners.
• Containment of Russia. Ukraine proposes to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its land, which will be sufficient to protect the state in the future. The item provides for the joint production of weapons, in particular the financing of weapons production in Ukraine by the West.
• Development of Ukraineʼs strategic and economic potential and strengthening of sanctions against the Russian Federation. Valuable resources are concentrated in Ukraine, including uranium, titanium, and lithium. They can strengthen Ukraine and allies. Ukraine proposes to sign special agreements with the EU and the USA on joint protection, investment in mining and use of these resources.
• The US contingent in NATO will be able to replace the Ukrainian military. After the end of the war, the Ukrainian military can use its experience to strengthen the defense of NATO and Europe.

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