Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine and Poland have become the best of friends, and now they are quarreling again. And everyone has a lot of questions about this — we answer them one by one

What is wrong with Ukrainian grain?

Before the full-scale war in the European Union, of which Poland is also a member, there were quotas for Ukrainian products, in particular for grain. In March 2022, in order to support the Ukrainian economy, the EU canceled the restrictions. This led to a rapid import of grain into Poland: in 2022, it tripled comparing to the previous year, reaching 3.2 million tons. And for the period from January to April 2023, according to Polish data, 600 times more wheat was brought to the country than for the same period in 2022. Grain traders bought Ukrainian grain because it was cheaper than Polish. Polish farmers suffered losses.

Another problem is transit to countries in Africa and Asia. Before the invasion, most Ukrainian grain was exported by sea. When Russia blocked Ukrainian ports, grain had to be exported overland, in particular through Poland. Zbigniew Kaszuba, an expert of the Federation of Branch Associations of Agricultural Producers, believes that a third of all grain, which on paper was intended for Africa, was illegally sold in Poland.

In order to support local farmers, in May the European Commission banned the import of Ukrainian grain to five countries neighboring Ukraine, including Poland. The European Union left the option of transporting grain in transit. On September 15, the EU lifted the ban on imports, and Poland refused to do so and declared that it would not be guided by the European Union in this matter.

This problem has been going on since the spring, and the aggravation happened only now — is it something political?

"The grain problem is really old, and now it has coincided with the pre-election race," says Daniel Szeligowski from the Polish Institute of International Relations. In this matter, all the main parties of Poland are in solidarity: publicly they protect domestic farmers and support the ban on imports.

However, the grain conflict has significantly shaken the position of the ruling "Law and Justice" party, which focuses on peasants and farmers. To make up for lost support, PiS actively uses two strategies — anti-German and anti-Ukrainian.

Anti-German rhetoric is needed by PIS in order to shake the position of its main competitor in the elections, Donald Tuskʼs "Civil Coalition" party. The politician is called a lobbyist for the interests of Germany, not Poland. On the anniversary of the beginning of World War II, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki again demanded justice and reparations from Germany. And President Dudaʼs foreign policy advisor Przemysław Zurawski vel Grajewski in his article stated directly that Germany wants to overthrow the current government in Poland — allegedly in order to restore relations with Russia.

Due to the history of the Second World War, it isnʼt difficult to spark negativity towards Germany, explains sociologist from the Jagiellonian University Jaroslaw Gurniak. However, this strategy against Germany is unlikely to help PiS gain many votes — the majority in Poland does not support it, he adds.

The anti-Ukrainian strategy looks more promising. Back in August, one of the PiS members told the newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza that the party deliberately uses anti-Ukrainian rhetoric: "We will be aggressive and clearly show that the primary interest is Polish, not Ukrainian." One of the elements of this strategy was to become the Volyn tragedy. With this slogan, PiS wants to take away the votes of farmers and women who support the right-wing radical party Konfederacja — it is becoming more and more popular.

"PiS is absolutely focused on winning the elections — by all possible means. The government will have no problem hitting anti-Ukrainian notes," says political scientist Barbara Brodzinska-Mirovska.

Are there really strong anti-Ukrainian sentiments in Poland?

This is a very categorical wording, but the attitude of Poles towards Ukrainians is really deteriorating. After February 24, 94% of Poles supported Ukrainians, although in 2021, less than half of the respondents had a positive attitude towards Ukrainians. In July 2023, the number of Poles loyal to Ukrainians on the territory of Poland fell to 62%.

"Such mobilization cannot be sustained for long. This change does not mean that Poles are turning away from Ukrainians, but it means that they are also getting used to war," says Daniel Szeligowski.

As Politico writes, because of this, PiS will not be able to actively promote anti-Ukrainian theses. "Voters of the party generally support pro-Ukrainian politics, so such a quick change of vector can be difficult to explain," the publication notes.

In Poland, they say that they have done too much for Ukraine, and if this aid is converted into money, Ukraine is in a huge debt. Is it really so?

Yes, but it was not a one-way process. As of April 2023, according to Polish President Andrzej Duda, Poland provided €3 billion in aid to Ukraine. These are hundreds of tanks, more than 100 armored personnel carriers and Krab howitzers. During the year of the war, Ukrainians received benefits and social assistance worth approximately one billion euros. However, Ukrainians "returned" at least part of this money to Poland. Last year in Poland, they paid at least €2 billion in taxes, according to Professor Maciej Duszczyk from the Center for the Study of Migration at the University of Warsaw. And according to the calculations of Bartosz Marczuk, vice president of the Polish Development Fund, in 2023, Ukrainians will pay another billion euros in taxes. In addition, Poland acts as a hub for the repair of Ukrainian equipment that was damaged at the front, and how much the country earned from this is unknown.

Moreover, after the start of the full-scale war, Poland significantly strengthened its position in the EU. It acted as a locomotive of aid to Ukraine — created a "tank coalition" and initiated a tripartite meeting between Presidents Andrzej Duda, Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to develop a unified strategy to support Ukraine.

Poland also deepened relations with the USA. It plays a key role in the work of the CIA in Ukraine. It is in Poland that many intelligence agents are based, who interact with Ukrainian agents and agents in other European countries. Poland is increasingly focusing on defense contracts with the US and South Korea, rather than with Germany, as it was before. At the beginning of February 2023, the head of the international policy department of the Office of the President of Poland, Martin Pszydacz, and the head of the National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewera, came to Washington. They discussed not only aid to Ukraine, but also the US military presence in Poland, new purchases of weapons and military technology.

However, PiS fears that the Democrats in the US are betting on the party of their rival Tusk. President Dudaʼs foreign policy advisor Przemysław Zhurawski vel Grajewski wrote that the Polish opposition is ideologically closer to the democrats than the conservatives from Law and Justice. "The current US administration is obviously not able to make a reasonable choice between the strategic interest of the US as a state, which is to keep PiS in power, and these sympathies," the official said.

Does Polandʼs position on the issue of war depend on who wins the elections?

Whatever the results of the elections, Poland will continue to help Ukraine — this is the strategic interest of the state, which is understood by all key parties, Szeligowski is convinced. However, accents may change. Currently, Poland coordinates its aid mainly with the USA — perhaps the opposition "Civil Platform" will make a greater bet on cooperation with the EU. Also, if the ruling party does not form a coalition after the elections, no one will have a majority — because of this, decisions regarding Ukraine may take longer.

Can we expect that the crisis in relations between the states will disappear after the elections?

It is difficult to say so. The conflict has already moved from a standstill — on September 21, Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine Mykola Solskyi and his Polish colleague Robert Telus discussed the situation with grain and will look for a way to resolve the crisis. If the grain issue can be resolved, it will give hope for de-escalation, Szeligowski believes. "There is no point of no return in relations. But the crisis of confidence will lead to certain political losses of Ukraineʼs positions," the expert says.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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