It has been 3 days since the start of the joint US-Israeli operation against Iran.
The US and Israel have attacked more than a thousand targets. Iran responded with massive attacks on US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. Some of the strikes hit civilian infrastructure in the Persian Gulf countries, paralyzing air traffic and tourism in the region.
Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly shot down three American F-15 fighter jets. All pilots ejected and survived, and the US Central Command called it a friendly fire incident.
Iranʼs regional allies also entered the war. The Lebanese group “Hezbollah” began shelling northern Israel from its territory. Israeli forces responded by striking positions in Lebanon. Yemeni Houthis threatened to attack shipping lanes in the Red Sea again.
The intensity of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, has dropped sharply.
About a fifth of the worldʼs oil exports pass through it — tens of millions of barrels per day. There is no formal blockade yet, but some shipping companies have already changed routes or suspended flights. Tanker operators do not want to expose ships and crews to the risk of attack.
Insurance in a war zone has become more expensive almost immediately — insurers are raising premiums or demanding additional guarantees. The strait has not been completely closed, but due to the risk of attacks and rising insurance rates, shipowners have begun to cancel flights.
Some ships have returned to ports or are waiting off-route.
«Babel'»
Oil prices have risen sharply since the escalation of hostilities.
The market reacted because oil traders are pricing in the risk of supply disruptions. More expensive insurance means more expensive logistics. More expensive logistics means more expensive oil. This chain has already pushed up global energy prices. European natural gas prices rose by almost 50% on March 2.
Major economies, including China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India, depend on Middle Eastern oil supplies. Many Asian countries have oil and gas reserves that will last them for the coming weeks and months, but a prolonged war or Iran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz would pose a serious threat to their economies.
The war has halted air traffic across the Middle East.
Countries in the region have closed their airspace one after another: Iran, Israel, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha — key transit hubs between Europe and Asia — have suspended operations or sharply reduced flights.
According to the Guardian, in just one day, more than 3 400 flights were canceled at seven major airports in the region. The three largest airlines — “Emirates”, “Qatar Airways” and “Etihad” — have suspended flights. About 90 000 passengers pass through these hubs every day.
Hundreds of thousands of people are stranded or forced to seek alternative routes, and governments are preparing to evacuate citizens. Airlines are canceling flights not only in the region — routes to India, Europe and Southeast Asia are being extended or changed to bypass dangerous areas.
The Middle East is one of the worldʼs main air transit hubs. When it stops, a chain reaction engulfs global aviation. Airlines are losing millions of dollars every day, which has already happened to airline stocks in the US, Asia and Europe.
A screenshot from “FlightRadar24” shows nearly empty airspace over Iran, Iraq and the Gulf states after mass flight cancellations, March 2, 2026.
What this means for Ukraine: air defense and missiles will become more scarce, and Russia will (very likely) earn more from oil
Air defense and missiles may become scarce.
The United States uses air defense systems and interceptor missiles in the Middle East. These are the same types of ammunition that Ukraine needs to protect itself from Russian missiles and drones.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has already stated that a protracted war against Iran could affect the pace of air defense system deliveries to Ukraine.
At the same time, there have been no signals from the United States or Europe so far that a war in the Middle East could affect the PURL initiative to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, including the scarce PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot.
The problem is not a political decision, but a manufacturing one: missiles for Patriot, NASAMS, and other systems are produced in limited batches. If the US is conducting two intensive campaigns in parallel, it will have to distribute its stockpiles.
More expensive oil means (could mean) more money for Russia.
If world oil prices rise, it directly affects the income of exporting countries. Russia remains one of the world’s largest oil suppliers (even after all the sanctions). Moscow sells its main export brand “Urals” at a discount to “Brent” — the international benchmark that determines the world price of oil. “Urals” is sold at a discount, but if “Brent” rises, Russian oil usually also becomes more expensive.
Whether Russiaʼs budget will actually receive more revenue from oil sales is still unclear. This Sunday, several OPEC+ countries, including Russia, reported that they would increase production by 206 000 barrels per day from April to compensate for a potential deficit, so the price will most likely return to previous levels.
The price of Russian Urals oil has been gradually declining since September 2025 and reached a minimum at the end of December. On February 27, “Urals” rose to $58.94 per barrel.
«Babel'»
If the joint US-Israeli operation somehow leads to a change of government in Iran, it would be Russia’s second major political loss in the Middle East, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
Such a development could cut off Russia’s ability to circumvent Western sanctions, complicate oil and gas transit through Iran, and jeopardize joint multibillion-dollar projects in both the oil and nuclear sectors.
Putin’s personal image, which has repeatedly offered itself as a mediator in negotiations with Iran, would also suffer. But even Donald Trump has already advised him: “Firstly, we need to manage the situation with Russia.”