If Russia maintains the pace of its offensive, in 6 months it will be on the edge of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. What will this mean for the front?

Author:
Valeriia Tsuba
Editor:
Glib Gusiev
Date:
If Russia maintains the pace of its offensive, in 6 months it will be on the edge of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. What will this mean for the front?

Fighters of the 24th separate mechanized brigade, which is carrying out combat missions near Kostyantynivka.

24 ОМБр імені короля Данила / «Бабель»

Since 2014, Russia has occupied more than 80 percent of the Donbass. Its main goal now is to capture Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Living in these cities is becoming increasingly difficult: the Russians are shelling them with almost everything they have in their arsenal. In early November, Ukrainian railways suspended train traffic to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. According to Reuters, Russian commanders have already reported to the Kremlin about full control over Siversk and called its capture a step towards Slovyansk. Is there a real threat of complete occupation of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk? And what does it threaten? Babel correspondent Valeriia Tsuba analyzes the situation on this section of the front. To do this, she used open sources. Additional information was provided by Babelʼs source on condition of anonymity by an officer who served in this direction for a long time.

Why is the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration important?

Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are the last major cities in the Donetsk region that remain under Ukrainian control. Since 2014, they have become important for the Ukrainian military: there are logistics centers there, from where weapons, equipment and assistance are delivered to the military. There are also military-production facilities in the city. After 2022, these cities have become key for the Ukrainian defense of Donbas.

Cities are densely built up — high-rise buildings, industrial zones, and the private sector are located close to each other. In such conditions, the enemy cannot advance quickly. Narrow streets, courtyards, and intersections limit the maneuverability of equipment, it cannot quickly change direction or retreat.

Buildings block the view and create numerous “blind spots” where defenders can covertly take up positions, control approaches, and deliver pinpoint strikes. As a result, every step forward for the attacking side becomes slow and costly.

At the same time, around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, outside the city limits, there are heights. They allow you to place communication repeaters and ensure stable coordination of units. Topographically, the agglomeration is advantageous for defense — rivers and heights complicate the offensive.

In contrast, open plains begin behind the cities, where defense is much more difficult due to the lack of natural shelters. In the event of the loss of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the front could move approximately 80 kilometers to the west, which would open the enemy the opportunity to quickly advance in the direction of Kharkiv, Poltava and Dnipro.

This is what all the main roads leading to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk look like.

The loss of cities will also create serious problems for the defense organization. A significant part of the military infrastructure is concentrated here — headquarters, repair bases, warehouses, medical facilities and stabilization points. Their urgent transfer to other areas in war conditions will be extremely difficult. Headquarters require protected basements, and repair bases require large premises that are not easy to find quickly.

Another problem is logistics and evacuation of the wounded. The further the front moves, the longer the journey to hospitals becomes and the less chance there is of rescuing the wounded. The road between Slovyansk and Kostyantynivka (T 0514) plays a key role.

As long as it is available, units can quickly reach positions and the wounded can be evacuated quickly. If it is lost, it will be necessary to use secondary routes, where traffic is slower and much more dangerous.

What is the situation in the direction of the cities?

The military calls the Lyman and neighbouring Siversk directions the "eastern gateway" to the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration. It is through these areas that the enemy can reach the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Two corps, subordinate to different groups, operate in these directions: the third corps is part of the Joint Forces Group, the eleventh is part of the East Group of Forces. Part of their areas of responsibility is divided by the Siversky Donets River. Units of the future Assault Forces are also operating there, which respond to enemy breakthroughs and close dangerous sections of the front.

Offensive on the Donetsk region in September-December. Front line on December 16, 2025. Below Kostyantynivka, the area of responsibility of the 19th Corps.

«Babel'»

This section of the front was stable during the three years of the war, but in the summer of 2025 it came alive. Since September, Russian forces have advanced towards the cities from the Lyman-Siversky direction by about ten kilometers.

If the enemy maintains the current pace, within six months he will reach the edge of the agglomeration. Currently, the nearest Russian positions to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are about 15 kilometers away.

According to Russian military reports, they allegedly occupied Siversk, located a little more than 20 km from Slovyansk. There is a direct road from Siversk to Slovyansk. Online maps of the front show that Siversk is not yet fully under Russian control — their presence there is partial.

Nevertheless, the Siversk direction remains one of the most tense. The Russians are expanding the "gray zone" west of Siversk, they are trying to create a bridgehead to advance deep into the Ukrainian defenses. Their goal is a chalk quarry, which provides height, cover and a convenient point to accumulate forces before the next thrusts.

In addition, Russian troops have entered the beam northwest of the city, approaching the highway connecting Lyman with Siversk (T 0513). This allows them to control logistics and creates additional pressure on Ukrainian positions from the flank, forcing them to constantly monitor the situation. If Siversk is completely occupied, the front line will move further, and the next major battle may take place in the Slovyansk direction.

The situation in the Lyman direction is also gradually becoming more complicated. A “gray zone” is expanding between the settlements of Dibrova and Ozerne — the Russians are cautiously probing this section, placing small infantry groups there and preparing conditions for further advancement. The immediate task is to occupy these settlements and gain a foothold on the northern bank of the Siversky Donets, creating a support line along the river.

After that, the Russians plan to develop an offensive to the west, in the direction of Raihorodok. This movement is not accidental. The Russians are acting consistently, trying to shake up the defense and expand the bridgehead for the future attack on Slovyansk.

Russian forces also intensified at the junction of the Chasiv Yar and Siversk directions — from there the distance to Kramatorsk is the shortest.

A fighter of the 24th Motorized Infantry Battalion of the King Danylo Motorized Rifle Brigade in Chasiv Yar.

24 ОМБр імені короля Данила