We spoke with European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius. He is writing a plan for the development of the European defense industry, for which the EU promises to find €800 billion. How will this help Ukraine?

Letʼs talk first about ReArm Europe, the defense industry financing plan announced by von der Leyen. The Dutch parliament recently refused to ratify it. What will this affect?

The [Dutch] parliament has reservations about some parts of [von der Leyenʼs] programme. But as we understood during the EU Council meeting [where European ministers met], the Dutch Prime Minister did not object to the [European defence funding] programme as such. We are currently preparing the so-called regulations to implement [von der Leyenʼs] programme. [To adopt them], there will be no need for unanimous support from [the EU Council], a qualified majority will suffice. This could happen at the next EU Council meeting, which is due to meet at the end of March this year. So even if one or two countries are sceptical about [von der Leyenʼs] programme, that will not stop [us].

Last Monday, the European Parliament adopted a “defense resolution”. In it, it insists that all European countries increase defense spending to at least three percent of GDP. Did you think that would be enough to restore Europe’s defense capabilities?

Yes, the European Parliament is demanding that EU countries make large and urgent investments in defense. On average, EU countries currently spend about two percent of GDP. [Thanks to the ReArm Europe plan] they will be able to increase their defense spending to three and a half percent. This is the first stage. In June, a NATO summit will be held, and similar figures may be approved there — it is NATO that sets the minimum spending for the Alliance countries. Some EU countries are already spending more than four percent, some are aiming for five percent. This is a voluntary decision, and this is very important.

It is also important to look not only at percentages, but also at needs: what is the size of the armed forces, what equipment national armies should have in order to be ready to implement the so-called NATO defense plans. These indicators should be approved at the NATO summit in June. Based on them, we will form a plan: what our industries should produce, how much it will cost. Then we will know better how much we need to invest [in joint defense].

The European defense industry has several problems, and one of them is market fragmentation. Different countries have their own tanks and artillery, and they are not unified. To speed up and reduce the cost of production, at least some of it should be brought to a single standard. How can this be done?

Yes, these problems are described in the so-called Mario Draghi Report last year. Our defense industries are indeed very fragmented. We also buy a lot of weapons outside the EU, and this does not strengthen European industry.

We should encourage EU countries to spend [their defense budgets] on so-called joint procurement — for example, on purchasing large quantities of the same type of tank. If [several countries collectively need] 1 200 tanks, it would be good to buy them from one manufacturer.

Then we will improve the situation with interoperability, implementation of NATO standards. There are new programs [aimed at this], they are currently being discussed by the European Parliament. [This is, for example], the so-called European Defence Industrialisation Programme (EDIP).

And how can one factory produce parts for another manufacturerʼs tank, abandoning its own technologies?

I canʼt tell you how this will happen. I donʼt see how it can be regulated legally. But if we manage to convince the EU countries that buying a lot of tanks of the same type is in their interests, then the manufacturers of, for example, the Leopard tank will look for someone who can produce additional quantities of this equipment. One manufacturer will not be able to produce the required number of tanks quickly.

As we know, according to intelligence, Russia may be ready to attack the EU and NATO member states in the next five years. So we need to be very practical. We really need to accelerate.

We need to show Putin our economic power translated into military power. And quickly. If we do nothing, Putin will produce three times more weapons than all NATO countries combined. In three months, Putin can produce more weapons than all NATO countries, including the United States, Great Britain and Europe, can produce in a year. So we need to catch up.

But will you have enough time until 2027?

Ukraine is showing us an example of how to develop a defense industry. Your government has provided us with statistics: in 2022, Ukraine was capable of producing weapons worth €1 billion per year, now it is about €35 billion per year. If we could learn from you, that would be very good.

If I understand correctly, the EU can support Ukraine in two ways. The first is to integrate Ukrainian defense production into EU structures. The second is to invest in Ukrainian production according to the “Danish model”. What do European countries choose?

Yes, there are several areas [of support for Ukraine] that we are working on. One of them is to make sure that Ukraine has access to European industrial programs. This will allow Europeans to learn a lot from the successes of the Ukrainian defense industry. This is currently being discussed in the EU Council and the European Parliament, I hope [they will make a decision] by the summer of this year. The second is the “Danish model”. We encourage other EU countries to follow it. [If you use the “Danish model” of procurement], for the same money you can buy almost twice as many weapons for the Ukrainian army, because your production is almost half as cheap.

One of the problems that the Ukrainian army may face is the Starlink shutdown. We spoke with you in December, and you said that the EU is working on an alternative. How is this work progressing?

As we have seen, so far Elon Musk and Marco Rubio have promised that Starlink will not be disconnected. This is the best-case scenario. However, in any case, Ukraine will not be left alone. There are opportunities, and there will be even more in the near future. But this is sensitive information, so I cannot disclose the details.