The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set the discount rate at the level of 16%, before that it was 20%.
The NBU informed about this on October 26.
The National Bank also improved the inflation forecast for the end of 2023 from 10.6 to 5.8% — due to the impact of high harvests on the cost of products. At the same time, the NBU raised the inflation forecast for 2024 — from 8.5 to 9.8%. Inflation will further slow down to 6% in 2025 — due to declining security risks.
In addition, the National Bank improved the real GDP growth forecast from 2.9 to 4.9% in 2023. Faster economic recovery is due to higher adaptability of business and population to wartime conditions, better than previously forecast harvest estimates, expansion of alternative routes for grain export, and higher spending from the state budget.
In 2024, the economy will grow by 3.6%, despite high security risks. Alternative supply routes and a soft fiscal policy will promote economic growth. Instead, still complicated logistics and war-restricted investment will slow down the economy.
The NBU predicts an acceleration of real GDP growth to 6% in 2025 — due to the gradual return of migrants from abroad, improvement in consumer and investment sentiment, establishment of optimal logistics and production, and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure.