Russia has developed a strategy plan to influence Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia until 2030. Most likely, the documents were prepared the year before last.
Journalists of LRT (Lithuania), Delfi Estonia (Estonia), Expressen (Sweden), Dossier (Russia), Kyiv Independent (Ukraine), NDR (Germany), Frontstory (Poland), Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany), VSquare (Visegrad Four), WDR (Germany), Yahoo News (USA), Re:Baltica (Latvia).
Russiaʼs long-term plans for the Baltic states did not take into account a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, because there is no mention of its expected consequences.
For each state in the region, the Kremlin has drawn up a two-part plan: in one it is written about the threats to the Russian Federation, in the second — a strategy to counter them. Each goal is included in a certain area and written according to the time frame — 2022, 2025 or 2030.
The main goals for Russia in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as stated in the documents, are:
- maintain the widest possible presence of the Russian language in education;
- create pro-Russian organizations and influence the population through them;
- oppose the demolition of Soviet monuments;
- to promote the Russian "historical" narrative;
- encourage local businesses to enter the Russian market.
The Kremlin paid considerable attention to the strategy of weakening NATOʼs presence in the Baltic states. There, they feared that a large military base of the Alliance would be created in Lithuania, and sought to prevent the deployment of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses. At the same time, they wanted to reduce the number of allied troops on the territory of Lithuania.
The long-term plan of the Russian Federation assumed that the Lithuanian authorities "recognize the potential damage" to their security due to the increase of NATOʼs influence in the region, and instead would seek to cooperate with Russia. The same Kremlin plans applied to Latvia and Estonia.
In the documents, the Russian Federation called the active participation of the Baltic countries in NATO, the increase of allied troops there, the introduction of sanctions and the development of trade with the West as a negative scenario for itself. However, this is exactly what happened after Russiaʼs full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Previously, international journalists received documents with similar Russian plans for Moldova and Belarus. The Kremlin wanted to conquer Moldova politically and economically, while Belarus planned to "absorb" it by 2030.