Ukrainian State Air Traffic Services of Ukraine announced that the sky would be opened for civilian flights immediately after the end of hostilities.
Before that, Eurocontrol assumed in its forecast that flights in Ukraine would resume only from the end of 2029. This infomercial gained publicity, therefore "Ukraerorukh" explains that Eurocontrol issues/updates 7-year forecasts of air traffic in the European region twice a year. They are used for the annual calculation of fees for air navigation services.
"The forecast published today is based on the current situation in the aviation industry and the configuration of routes, namely: the closure of Ukrainian airspace for civilian flights due to hostilities, significant restrictions on flights in the airspace of Moldova (also for security reasons), Russia and Belarus (sanction bans), a significant decrease in flights in Poland, the Baltic, Scandinavian countries and a corresponding increase in the intensity of flights in the south-eastern part of Europe (in order to fly over closed areas), etc. These factors are considered to be in effect until the end of the planning horizon, i.e. until 2029, due to the lack of other confirmed input data for forecasting today," the company explains.
They emphasize that "Eurocontrol does not generate or use military forecasts/analytics/assumptions to generate its forecasts." These calculations also do not include other factors of uncertainty, such as, in particular: unforeseeable economic turbulence, escalation of geopolitical tensions, other unforeseen events that may have a negative impact on the development of aviation.
That is why Eurocontrol specialists, based on actual input data (the fact of the ongoing war), made assumptions until the end of the planning horizon — that is, until 2029. After the appearance of new objective factors, such as the end of the war and the reforming of the route network, the Eurocontrol forecast will be updated using new data.
Despite the war, Ukraine is fully preparing for the resumption of flights.